A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris

Natural rubber is an important agricultural commodity in Malaysia. It was planted in Malaysia for more than three decades. Today, Malaysia is the third largest rubber producer in the world and the fifth largest consumer of rubber, and among the world‟s largest exporter of rubber products. However, t...

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Main Author:	Idris, Noor Idda
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2014
Subjects:	Agricultural industries Rubber industry and trade
Online Access:	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/33660/1/33660.pdf
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id	my-uitm-ir.33660
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-uitm-ir.336602020-08-18T05:52:03Z A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris 2014-01 Idris, Noor Idda Agricultural industries Rubber industry and trade Natural rubber is an important agricultural commodity in Malaysia. It was planted in Malaysia for more than three decades. Today, Malaysia is the third largest rubber producer in the world and the fifth largest consumer of rubber, and among the world‟s largest exporter of rubber products. However, the instability of the production of natural rubber (NR) posts a significant risk to producers, traders, consumers, and others involved in the production and marketing of NR. Thus, it is crucial for decision makers to statistically and accurately project the production of NR. So, the main focus of this study aims to forecast the monthly natural rubber production from smallholding sector in Malaysia for next two years from January 2014 until December 2015 by using the best model. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the Univariate Modelling Techniques and Box-Jenkins Methodology were used. All the best models of forecasting for NR production were identified and selected based on the minimum of Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. Data collected were analyzed using Microsof Excel, SPSS Statistics 20 and Minitab 16 software. The finding found that the best model to forecast natural rubber production from smallholding sector in Malaysia using Univariate Modelling Techniques was Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative). Whereas, the best Box-Jenkins Methodology suggested that SARIMA ( 3 1 1 ) ( 1 1 1 )12 was the best model. In order to determine the best model that suit the series well, comparison of Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) and SARIMA( 3 1 1 ) ( 1 1 1 )12 were implemented. Based on the comparison, it shows that Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) has the lowest value of MSE and MAPE. Hence, the result of the study imply that Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) forecasting method was a better alternative approach for predicting natural rubber production. The forecasting result showed a slightly decreasing trend over the period from January 2014 until December 2015.Hope, forecasting the future production of natural rubber through the most accurate models can help the Malaysian government as well as the production in natural rubber industry to perform better strategic planning and also to help them in maximizing revenue and minimizing the natural rubber production 2014-01 Thesis https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/33660/ https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/33660/1/33660.pdf text en public degree Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences Mohamed Zukri, Shamsunarnie
institution	Universiti Teknologi MARA
collection	UiTM Institutional Repository
language	English
advisor	Mohamed Zukri, Shamsunarnie
topic	Agricultural industries Rubber industry and trade
spellingShingle	Agricultural industries Rubber industry and trade Idris, Noor Idda A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
description	Natural rubber is an important agricultural commodity in Malaysia. It was planted in Malaysia for more than three decades. Today, Malaysia is the third largest rubber producer in the world and the fifth largest consumer of rubber, and among the world‟s largest exporter of rubber products. However, the instability of the production of natural rubber (NR) posts a significant risk to producers, traders, consumers, and others involved in the production and marketing of NR. Thus, it is crucial for decision makers to statistically and accurately project the production of NR. So, the main focus of this study aims to forecast the monthly natural rubber production from smallholding sector in Malaysia for next two years from January 2014 until December 2015 by using the best model. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the Univariate Modelling Techniques and Box-Jenkins Methodology were used. All the best models of forecasting for NR production were identified and selected based on the minimum of Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. Data collected were analyzed using Microsof Excel, SPSS Statistics 20 and Minitab 16 software. The finding found that the best model to forecast natural rubber production from smallholding sector in Malaysia using Univariate Modelling Techniques was Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative). Whereas, the best Box-Jenkins Methodology suggested that SARIMA ( 3 1 1 ) ( 1 1 1 )12 was the best model. In order to determine the best model that suit the series well, comparison of Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) and SARIMA( 3 1 1 ) ( 1 1 1 )12 were implemented. Based on the comparison, it shows that Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) has the lowest value of MSE and MAPE. Hence, the result of the study imply that Holt-Winters‟ Trend and Seasonality (Multiplicative) forecasting method was a better alternative approach for predicting natural rubber production. The forecasting result showed a slightly decreasing trend over the period from January 2014 until December 2015.Hope, forecasting the future production of natural rubber through the most accurate models can help the Malaysian government as well as the production in natural rubber industry to perform better strategic planning and also to help them in maximizing revenue and minimizing the natural rubber production
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Bachelor degree
author	Idris, Noor Idda
author_facet	Idris, Noor Idda
author_sort	Idris, Noor Idda
title	A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
title_short	A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
title_full	A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
title_fullStr	A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
title_full_unstemmed	A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris
title_sort	study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in malaysia / noor idda idris
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan
granting_department	Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
publishDate	2014
url	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/33660/1/33660.pdf
_version_	1783734248439545856

A study on trend and modelling for monthly natural rubber production from small holding sector in Malaysia / Noor Idda Idris

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