Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar

Road traffic accident is an accident which occurred or originated on a way or street open to public traffic. According to Tang Ruxyn (2017), Malaysia has been the highest ranked of emerging country with the riskiest road and he also recorded that the death rate of road traffic accidents in Malaysia...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2021
Subjects:	Traffic accidents Time-series analysis
Online Access:	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/44204/1/44204.pdf
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id	my-uitm-ir.44204
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-uitm-ir.442042024-03-27T03:17:49Z Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar 2021-03-24 Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora Traffic accidents Time-series analysis Road traffic accident is an accident which occurred or originated on a way or street open to public traffic. According to Tang Ruxyn (2017), Malaysia has been the highest ranked of emerging country with the riskiest road and he also recorded that the death rate of road traffic accidents in Malaysia was about 7,000 to 8,000 annually. This accident resulted in one or more persons being killed or injured, and at least one moving vehicle was involved. An integrated approach to reduce road crashes is very important and forecasting the number of road traffic accidents may help in this issue. This study uses two models namely Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) model and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) model to compare the error measure performance in predicting number of road traffic accidents in Kuala Terengganu. Criteria for the best forecasting model were also being investigated. Data of road traffic accidents from year 2016 until year 2019 was used. Data from year 2016 to 2018 was used in model development and the rest were used as model validation. Result showed that the FTS method had the smallest values of MSE, RMSE, and MAPE compared to DES method. It concludes that FTS method is a good model to predict the number of road traffic accidents because it is more accurate and reliable. 2021-03 Thesis https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/44204/ https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/44204/1/44204.pdf text en public degree Universiti Teknologi Mara Perlis Faculty of Computer & Mathematical Sciences
institution	Universiti Teknologi MARA
collection	UiTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	Traffic accidents Time-series analysis
spellingShingle	Traffic accidents Time-series analysis Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
description	Road traffic accident is an accident which occurred or originated on a way or street open to public traffic. According to Tang Ruxyn (2017), Malaysia has been the highest ranked of emerging country with the riskiest road and he also recorded that the death rate of road traffic accidents in Malaysia was about 7,000 to 8,000 annually. This accident resulted in one or more persons being killed or injured, and at least one moving vehicle was involved. An integrated approach to reduce road crashes is very important and forecasting the number of road traffic accidents may help in this issue. This study uses two models namely Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) model and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) model to compare the error measure performance in predicting number of road traffic accidents in Kuala Terengganu. Criteria for the best forecasting model were also being investigated. Data of road traffic accidents from year 2016 until year 2019 was used. Data from year 2016 to 2018 was used in model development and the rest were used as model validation. Result showed that the FTS method had the smallest values of MSE, RMSE, and MAPE compared to DES method. It concludes that FTS method is a good model to predict the number of road traffic accidents because it is more accurate and reliable.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Bachelor degree
author	Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora
author_facet	Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora
author_sort	Khairul Albar, Bibi Nurul Idora
title	Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
title_short	Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
title_full	Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
title_fullStr	Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
title_full_unstemmed	Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar
title_sort	comparison between fuzzy time series [fts] model and double exponential smoothing [des] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / bibi nurul idora khairul albar
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Mara Perlis
granting_department	Faculty of Computer & Mathematical Sciences
publishDate	2021
url	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/44204/1/44204.pdf
_version_	1804889636763336704

Comparison between fuzzy time series [FTS] model and double exponential smoothing [DES] model in predicting the number of road traffic accidents / Bibi Nurul Idora Khairul Albar

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