Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin

This study forecast the prices of rubber in Malaysia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of GBM model in forecasting the prices of rubber. The monthly data of average rubber price is obtained from Official Website Malaysian Rubber Board. The price of rubber was retrieved in...

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Main Authors:	Tobari, Aini Syahirah, Zainudin, Nur Syafiqah
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2018
Subjects:	Agricultural economics
Online Access:	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/57305/1/57305.PDF
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id	my-uitm-ir.57305
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-uitm-ir.573052022-06-27T00:58:14Z Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin 2018-07 Tobari, Aini Syahirah Zainudin, Nur Syafiqah Agricultural economics This study forecast the prices of rubber in Malaysia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of GBM model in forecasting the prices of rubber. The monthly data of average rubber price is obtained from Official Website Malaysian Rubber Board. The price of rubber was retrieved in RM/kg on monthly basis from January 2008until December 2017. The accuracy of the model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by comparing the actual and forecasted rubber prices. Next, another objective in this project is to identify the trend of the actual and forecasted rubber prices. The actual and forecasted price of rubber, were compared based on the graph that shows the volatility of these prices. In addition to determine the reliability of GBM, this project compare the error by using the Moving Average model. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for GBM model are less than 10%. It shows that the forecasted prices are highly accurate. Thus, this model can be applied to perform the forecasting method and predict the future prices for commodity market in Malaysia. 2018-07 Thesis https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/57305/ https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/57305/1/57305.PDF text en public degree Universiti Teknologi MARA Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences Yusof, Hasnah
institution	Universiti Teknologi MARA
collection	UiTM Institutional Repository
language	English
advisor	Yusof, Hasnah
topic	Agricultural economics
spellingShingle	Agricultural economics Tobari, Aini Syahirah Zainudin, Nur Syafiqah Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
description	This study forecast the prices of rubber in Malaysia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of GBM model in forecasting the prices of rubber. The monthly data of average rubber price is obtained from Official Website Malaysian Rubber Board. The price of rubber was retrieved in RM/kg on monthly basis from January 2008until December 2017. The accuracy of the model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by comparing the actual and forecasted rubber prices. Next, another objective in this project is to identify the trend of the actual and forecasted rubber prices. The actual and forecasted price of rubber, were compared based on the graph that shows the volatility of these prices. In addition to determine the reliability of GBM, this project compare the error by using the Moving Average model. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for GBM model are less than 10%. It shows that the forecasted prices are highly accurate. Thus, this model can be applied to perform the forecasting method and predict the future prices for commodity market in Malaysia.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Bachelor degree
author	Tobari, Aini Syahirah Zainudin, Nur Syafiqah
author_facet	Tobari, Aini Syahirah Zainudin, Nur Syafiqah
author_sort	Tobari, Aini Syahirah
title	Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
title_short	Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
title_full	Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
title_fullStr	Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin
title_sort	forecasting the price of rubber in malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / aini syahirah tobari and nur syafiqah zainudin
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi MARA
granting_department	Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
publishDate	2018
url	https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/57305/1/57305.PDF
_version_	1783734970299187200

Forecasting the price of rubber in Malaysia by using geometric brownian motion model / Aini Syahirah Tobari and Nur Syafiqah Zainudin

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