Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia
Population growth model is a model that has widely been used in order to do the estimation and forecasting the population of peoples, animals, bacteria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out by the researchers on population growth model by considering the factors of birt...
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| Format: | Thesis |
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| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/1/Page%201-24.pdf http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/2/Full%20text.pdf http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/3/Declaration%20Form.pdf |
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| Summary: | Population growth model is a model that has widely been used in order to do the
estimation and forecasting the population of peoples, animals, bacteria and even in
economics growth. Many studies have been carried out by the researchers on population
growth model by considering the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to
predict the number of population at certain area. From previous the studies there was only
one study that involved the factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. The value
of the migration is a constant value. Therefore in contrast with the above modified logistic
model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function
of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between
peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be
solved qualitatively by using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively by using
the separable variables method. Both of these methods produce the same result. Modified
logistic model has been applied in the population data of Purwanegara village in Jawa
Tengah Province, Indonesia. By using the data, through the graph method and analysis of
equilibrium point the same results are produced, where for the long term behavior the
population of Purwanegara village will approach to the maximum value of 68,495 persons.
Modified logistic model gives average absolute error percentage which is 0.61376782 %
for the estimation of the population from January, 2012 until October, 2016. Then, based
on validation model, the absolute error percentage which is 2.79737591 % for the
estimation of the population in November, 2016. Hence, based on the graph method,
prediction for the population in Purwanegara village from December 2016 until
December 2018 can be done. From the results, the modified logistic model with migration
factor as a function of population gives a better result for predicting the population of
Purwanegara village in Jawa Tengah Province, Indonesia compared to logistic model |
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