Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia
Population growth model is a model that has widely been used in order to do the estimation and forecasting the population of peoples, animals, bacteria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out by the researchers on population growth model by considering the factors of birt...
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my-unimap-776342023-01-10T05:01:18Z Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia Ahmad Kadri, Junoh, Dr. Population growth model is a model that has widely been used in order to do the estimation and forecasting the population of peoples, animals, bacteria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out by the researchers on population growth model by considering the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to predict the number of population at certain area. From previous the studies there was only one study that involved the factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. The value of the migration is a constant value. Therefore in contrast with the above modified logistic model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be solved qualitatively by using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively by using the separable variables method. Both of these methods produce the same result. Modified logistic model has been applied in the population data of Purwanegara village in Jawa Tengah Province, Indonesia. By using the data, through the graph method and analysis of equilibrium point the same results are produced, where for the long term behavior the population of Purwanegara village will approach to the maximum value of 68,495 persons. Modified logistic model gives average absolute error percentage which is 0.61376782 % for the estimation of the population from January, 2012 until October, 2016. Then, based on validation model, the absolute error percentage which is 2.79737591 % for the estimation of the population in November, 2016. Hence, based on the graph method, prediction for the population in Purwanegara village from December 2016 until December 2018 can be done. From the results, the modified logistic model with migration factor as a function of population gives a better result for predicting the population of Purwanegara village in Jawa Tengah Province, Indonesia compared to logistic model Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) Thesis en http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/handle/123456789/77634 http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/4/license.txt 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/1/Page%201-24.pdf 3fd474838016a8c676139daedd1f5a43 http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/2/Full%20text.pdf 5830eedffd9052758804bcbea2c120ce http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/3/Declaration%20Form.pdf c1ea45a0d1091b02d62c27f98a1b8b8b Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) Demography -- Indonesia Economic development -- Mathematical models Indonesia -- Population Indonesia -- Statistics Institute of Engineering Mathematics |
| institution |
Universiti Malaysia Perlis |
| collection |
UniMAP Institutional Repository |
| language |
English |
| advisor |
Ahmad Kadri, Junoh, Dr. |
| topic |
Demography -- Indonesia Economic development -- Mathematical models Indonesia -- Population Indonesia -- Statistics |
| spellingShingle |
Demography -- Indonesia Economic development -- Mathematical models Indonesia -- Population Indonesia -- Statistics Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| description |
Population growth model is a model that has widely been used in order to do the
estimation and forecasting the population of peoples, animals, bacteria and even in
economics growth. Many studies have been carried out by the researchers on population
growth model by considering the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to
predict the number of population at certain area. From previous the studies there was only
one study that involved the factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. The value
of the migration is a constant value. Therefore in contrast with the above modified logistic
model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function
of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between
peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be
solved qualitatively by using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively by using
the separable variables method. Both of these methods produce the same result. Modified
logistic model has been applied in the population data of Purwanegara village in Jawa
Tengah Province, Indonesia. By using the data, through the graph method and analysis of
equilibrium point the same results are produced, where for the long term behavior the
population of Purwanegara village will approach to the maximum value of 68,495 persons.
Modified logistic model gives average absolute error percentage which is 0.61376782 %
for the estimation of the population from January, 2012 until October, 2016. Then, based
on validation model, the absolute error percentage which is 2.79737591 % for the
estimation of the population in November, 2016. Hence, based on the graph method,
prediction for the population in Purwanegara village from December 2016 until
December 2018 can be done. From the results, the modified logistic model with migration
factor as a function of population gives a better result for predicting the population of
Purwanegara village in Jawa Tengah Province, Indonesia compared to logistic model |
| format |
Thesis |
| title |
Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| title_short |
Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| title_full |
Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| title_fullStr |
Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of Purwanegara Village in Jawa Tengah, Indonesia |
| title_sort |
modified logistic model with migration factor to predict the population of purwanegara village in jawa tengah, indonesia |
| granting_institution |
Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) |
| granting_department |
Institute of Engineering Mathematics |
| url |
http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/1/Page%201-24.pdf http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/2/Full%20text.pdf http://dspace.unimap.edu.my:80/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/77634/3/Declaration%20Form.pdf |
| _version_ |
1776104279172448256 |