Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market

This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method propo...

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Main Author:	Kuek, Tai Hock
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2015
Subjects:	H Social Sciences (General)
Online Access:	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf
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id	my-unimas-ir.10793
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-unimas-ir.107932023-06-15T03:38:27Z Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market 2015 Kuek, Tai Hock H Social Sciences (General) This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method proposed by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The constructed PCI consists of six component series, namely, gross domestic product, consumer sentiment index, foreign direct investment, tourist arrival, domestic share price and the United States share price. Empirical results indicated that the movement of PCI is consistent in advance of Property Sales by Unit Transactions (PSU), suggesting that the PCI has a significant amount of signalling attributes against the PSU. This highlighted the potential ability of the leading indicator to predict the property market outlook using a non-parametric technique of indicator construction and information content from a macroeconomic perspective. Therefore, policymakers, property market players, and investors may consider the use of the property cycle indicator as an early signalling tool to predict the movement of the property market in Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS) 2015 Thesis http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf text en validuser masters Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS) Faculty of Economics and Business
institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
collection	UNIMAS Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	H Social Sciences (General)
spellingShingle	H Social Sciences (General) Kuek, Tai Hock Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
description	This study attempts to investigate the fluctuations in the Malaysian property market and predict the early signals of property market vulnerability using the property cycle indicator (PCI) with data of monthly basis from 1991M1 to 2013M12 and the employment of the indicator construction method proposed by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The constructed PCI consists of six component series, namely, gross domestic product, consumer sentiment index, foreign direct investment, tourist arrival, domestic share price and the United States share price. Empirical results indicated that the movement of PCI is consistent in advance of Property Sales by Unit Transactions (PSU), suggesting that the PCI has a significant amount of signalling attributes against the PSU. This highlighted the potential ability of the leading indicator to predict the property market outlook using a non-parametric technique of indicator construction and information content from a macroeconomic perspective. Therefore, policymakers, property market players, and investors may consider the use of the property cycle indicator as an early signalling tool to predict the movement of the property market in Malaysia.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Kuek, Tai Hock
author_facet	Kuek, Tai Hock
author_sort	Kuek, Tai Hock
title	Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_short	Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_full	Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_fullStr	Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_full_unstemmed	Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market
title_sort	property cycle index : an indicator to the malaysian property market
granting_institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, (UNIMAS)
granting_department	Faculty of Economics and Business
publishDate	2015
url	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/10793/1/Kuek.pdf
_version_	1783728073888235520

Property cycle index : an indicator to the Malaysian property market

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