Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China

Due to improved living standards and a growing emphasis on health, fresh agricultural products have become integral to our daily diets. This trend is primarily attributed to their high protein content and abundant supply of essential vitamins. However, the perishable nature of these goods unde...

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Main Author:	Yuanyuan, Chen
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2024
Subjects:	HB Economic Theory
Online Access:	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/46513/3/Thesis%20PhD_Chen%20Yuanyuan.pdf
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spelling	my-unimas-ir.465132024-10-31T01:06:23Z Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China 2024-10-30 Yuanyuan, Chen HB Economic Theory Due to improved living standards and a growing emphasis on health, fresh agricultural products have become integral to our daily diets. This trend is primarily attributed to their high protein content and abundant supply of essential vitamins. However, the perishable nature of these goods underscores the critical importance of cold chain logistics, which has the potential to significantly mitigate product deterioration. Presently, the coverage of cold chain logistics in China lags behind that of industrialized nations, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. Moreover, outdated technology and a shortage of skilled professionals further exacerbate this disparity. China’s diverse geographical landscape and varied lifestyles influence the various demands for cold chain logistics. This study employed a static panel data model to investigate the factors influencing the demand for cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products, both in coastal and inland regions. The key determinants in China identified include the value added of the primary industry, freight turnover, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, internet broadband access subscribers, and the impact of COVID-19. Value added of the primary industry, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, internet broadband access subscribers, and the COVID-19 pandemic were a few factors that primarily affect coastal regions. On the other hand, the effects of COVID-19, the value added of the primary industry, freight turnover, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, and internet broadband access subscribers were what drive inland areas. Based on these findings, specific development recommendations were proposed for cold chain logistics in different regions of China, aiming to provide theoretical support for advancing the industry. Then, utilizing the GM (1,1) model, future demand for cold chain logistics in fresh agricultural products was forecasted for the next five years, encompassing China as a whole as well as its coastal and inland regions. Projections indicated that by 2027, the demand for iii iv cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products in China is expected to reach 1,571.14 million tons, with 694.58 million tons in coastal areas and 876.56 million tons in inland regions. These insights were instrumental in facilitating informed investment strategies in cold chain logistics and formulating relevant policies to foster industry development. Keywords: Cold Chain Logistics, Fresh Agricultural Products, Demand Forecasts, China UNIMAS 2024-10 Thesis http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/46513/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/46513/3/Thesis%20PhD_Chen%20Yuanyuan.pdf text en validuser phd doctoral UNIMAS ECONOMICS
institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
collection	UNIMAS Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	HB Economic Theory
spellingShingle	HB Economic Theory Yuanyuan, Chen Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
description	Due to improved living standards and a growing emphasis on health, fresh agricultural products have become integral to our daily diets. This trend is primarily attributed to their high protein content and abundant supply of essential vitamins. However, the perishable nature of these goods underscores the critical importance of cold chain logistics, which has the potential to significantly mitigate product deterioration. Presently, the coverage of cold chain logistics in China lags behind that of industrialized nations, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. Moreover, outdated technology and a shortage of skilled professionals further exacerbate this disparity. China’s diverse geographical landscape and varied lifestyles influence the various demands for cold chain logistics. This study employed a static panel data model to investigate the factors influencing the demand for cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products, both in coastal and inland regions. The key determinants in China identified include the value added of the primary industry, freight turnover, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, internet broadband access subscribers, and the impact of COVID-19. Value added of the primary industry, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, internet broadband access subscribers, and the COVID-19 pandemic were a few factors that primarily affect coastal regions. On the other hand, the effects of COVID-19, the value added of the primary industry, freight turnover, ownership of civilian goods vehicles, and internet broadband access subscribers were what drive inland areas. Based on these findings, specific development recommendations were proposed for cold chain logistics in different regions of China, aiming to provide theoretical support for advancing the industry. Then, utilizing the GM (1,1) model, future demand for cold chain logistics in fresh agricultural products was forecasted for the next five years, encompassing China as a whole as well as its coastal and inland regions. Projections indicated that by 2027, the demand for iii iv cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products in China is expected to reach 1,571.14 million tons, with 694.58 million tons in coastal areas and 876.56 million tons in inland regions. These insights were instrumental in facilitating informed investment strategies in cold chain logistics and formulating relevant policies to foster industry development. Keywords: Cold Chain Logistics, Fresh Agricultural Products, Demand Forecasts, China
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Yuanyuan, Chen
author_facet	Yuanyuan, Chen
author_sort	Yuanyuan, Chen
title	Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
title_short	Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
title_full	Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
title_fullStr	Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China
title_sort	forecasting the cold chain logistics demand for fresh agricultural products in china
granting_institution	UNIMAS
granting_department	ECONOMICS
publishDate	2024
url	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/46513/3/Thesis%20PhD_Chen%20Yuanyuan.pdf
_version_	1818611703532748800

Forecasting the Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products in China

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