Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks

Risks are inherently present In all construction projects. Quite often, construction projects fail to achieve their time quality and budget goals. Risk management is a subject, which has grown in popularity during the last decade. It is a formal orderly process for systematically identifying, ana...

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Main Author:	Mohammed Omer, Anwar
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English
Published:	1999
Subjects:	Project Scheduling Networks - Case studies
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/10450/1/FK_1999_39.pdf
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id	my-upm-ir.10450
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-upm-ir.104502024-03-27T06:47:30Z Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks 1999-12 Mohammed Omer, Anwar Risks are inherently present In all construction projects. Quite often, construction projects fail to achieve their time quality and budget goals. Risk management is a subject, which has grown in popularity during the last decade. It is a formal orderly process for systematically identifying, analysing and responding to risks associated with construction projects so as to reduce the effects of these risks to an acceptable level. Risk analysis is primarily concerned with evaluating uncertainties. The purpose of risk analysis is to enable a decision-maker to take an appropriate response in advance against a possible occurrence of a problem. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation as a tool of risk analysis was used. The merge event bias as one of the essential problems associated with PERT is discussed, along with models and approaches developed by other researchers, namely, Probabilistic Network Evaluation Technique (PNET algorithm), Modified PNET, Back-Forward Uncertainly Estimation procedure (BFUE) and concept based on the robust reliability idea. These developed approaches are more reliable in planning construction projects compared to PERT because they attempt to handle the merge event bias problem. In addition, this study demonstrates a number of benefits. the most significant among them being that: (1) Formal risk management tec1miques are rarely used in construction. Dealing with risk management in construction is now essential for minimizing losses and to enhance profitability. (2) It is very dangerous to rely only on PERT/CPM conventional techniques in scheduling projects. (3) To use floats, as stated by traditional resource allocation method, is not practicable. (4) For a project network, the likelihood completion date of a project is exactly equal to the product of the probabilities of each path, separately, with respect to a project completion date. Using simulation now validates this statement. (5) The computation error of a project likelihood completion date is less than 10 percent if a path of a float greater than twice the larger standard deviation of this mentioned path and the critical path is dropped from the calculation, and (6) An effective risk response framework is introduced to help contractors systematically manage the risk in scheduling their projects. Project Scheduling Networks - Case studies 1999-12 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/10450/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/10450/1/FK_1999_39.pdf text en public masters Universiti Putra Malaysia Project Scheduling Networks - Case studies Faculty of Engineering Nesan, L. Jawahar English
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English English
advisor	Nesan, L. Jawahar
topic	Project Scheduling Networks - Case studies
spellingShingle	Project Scheduling Networks - Case studies Mohammed Omer, Anwar Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
description	Risks are inherently present In all construction projects. Quite often, construction projects fail to achieve their time quality and budget goals. Risk management is a subject, which has grown in popularity during the last decade. It is a formal orderly process for systematically identifying, analysing and responding to risks associated with construction projects so as to reduce the effects of these risks to an acceptable level. Risk analysis is primarily concerned with evaluating uncertainties. The purpose of risk analysis is to enable a decision-maker to take an appropriate response in advance against a possible occurrence of a problem. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation as a tool of risk analysis was used. The merge event bias as one of the essential problems associated with PERT is discussed, along with models and approaches developed by other researchers, namely, Probabilistic Network Evaluation Technique (PNET algorithm), Modified PNET, Back-Forward Uncertainly Estimation procedure (BFUE) and concept based on the robust reliability idea. These developed approaches are more reliable in planning construction projects compared to PERT because they attempt to handle the merge event bias problem. In addition, this study demonstrates a number of benefits. the most significant among them being that: (1) Formal risk management tec1miques are rarely used in construction. Dealing with risk management in construction is now essential for minimizing losses and to enhance profitability. (2) It is very dangerous to rely only on PERT/CPM conventional techniques in scheduling projects. (3) To use floats, as stated by traditional resource allocation method, is not practicable. (4) For a project network, the likelihood completion date of a project is exactly equal to the product of the probabilities of each path, separately, with respect to a project completion date. Using simulation now validates this statement. (5) The computation error of a project likelihood completion date is less than 10 percent if a path of a float greater than twice the larger standard deviation of this mentioned path and the critical path is dropped from the calculation, and (6) An effective risk response framework is introduced to help contractors systematically manage the risk in scheduling their projects.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Mohammed Omer, Anwar
author_facet	Mohammed Omer, Anwar
author_sort	Mohammed Omer, Anwar
title	Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
title_short	Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
title_full	Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
title_fullStr	Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
title_full_unstemmed	Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks
title_sort	time-uncertainty analysis by using simulation in project scheduling networks
granting_institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
granting_department	Faculty of Engineering
publishDate	1999
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/10450/1/FK_1999_39.pdf
_version_	1804888538905313280

Time-Uncertainty Analysis by Using Simulation in Project Scheduling Networks

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