Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping

Floods resulting from severe seasonal monsoon rainfall are the most important significant natural disaster affecting Malaysia in terms of their impact on the economic, damage to property and sometimes-tragic losses of lives. One of the greatest deficiencies of the current flood models used in the co...

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Main Author:	Billa, Lawal
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English
Published:	2006
Subjects:	Flood forecasting - Case studies
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/421/2/1600468.pdf
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id	my-upm-ir.421
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-upm-ir.4212013-05-27T06:48:14Z Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping 2006-05-01 Billa, Lawal Floods resulting from severe seasonal monsoon rainfall are the most important significant natural disaster affecting Malaysia in terms of their impact on the economic, damage to property and sometimes-tragic losses of lives. One of the greatest deficiencies of the current flood models used in the country is the inability to provide cloud and mesoscale rainfall information in the earliest portion of 0-6h of heir forecasting period. In this study NOAA- AVHRR and GMS satellite data were processed for grid based rainfall and rainfall intensity mapping to improve short range quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) of severe monsoon weather and also to facilitate the assimilation of QPF into operational flood forecasting. 1D cloud model based QPF modeling process was developed, that relates cloud top temperature below 235oK, reflectance above 28% and cloud heights above 12000m with tropical rainfall formation within the range of 3-12 mm/hr. A grid based rainfall intensity map was thus produced for Langat River Basin. High correlations of R2 above 0.75 were observed for cloud top temperature processed from GOES data and recorded rainfall of severe monsoon weather of selected stations in Terengganu, Kuantan and Kota Bahru. Hydrodynamic and rainfall-runoff simulation were performed using MIKE 11 hydrological model and a suitably auto-calibrated NAM runoff model. The hydrological model was tested for rainfall runoff process using observed hourly rainfall data for the flood event of 27 Sept. to 8 Oct. 2000 as well as rainfall estimation derive from the cloud model QPF using hourly GMS temperature reading for the same storm period. The rainfall- runoff hydrographs generated for the two rainfall sources showed similarities with R2 of 0.9028. The results of the runoff modeling were integrated in MIKE11 GIS model for flood inundation mapping. Separate inundation maps were generated for the observed rainfall and the QPF derive rainfall runoff results for comparison. The accuracies of both maps were verified using grid point location data for flooded areas published in the DID Annual Flood Report. The verification results showed an accuracy of 70% for both flood maps. The methods and processes developed by this study are flexible enough to be applied in other mesoscale and severe storm forecasting particularly a tropical setting. In using NOAA satellite, AVHRR data can be received and processed in advance of 6h of the actual rainfall event. This study should thus prove very useful for the assimilation of grid based rainfall intensity into and improve short- range operational flood forecast. Flood forecasting - Case studies 2006-05 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/421/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/421/2/1600468.pdf application/pdf en public phd doctoral Universiti Putra Malaysia Flood forecasting - Case studies Faculty of Engineering English
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English English
topic	Flood forecasting - Case studies
spellingShingle	Flood forecasting - Case studies Billa, Lawal Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
description	Floods resulting from severe seasonal monsoon rainfall are the most important significant natural disaster affecting Malaysia in terms of their impact on the economic, damage to property and sometimes-tragic losses of lives. One of the greatest deficiencies of the current flood models used in the country is the inability to provide cloud and mesoscale rainfall information in the earliest portion of 0-6h of heir forecasting period. In this study NOAA- AVHRR and GMS satellite data were processed for grid based rainfall and rainfall intensity mapping to improve short range quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) of severe monsoon weather and also to facilitate the assimilation of QPF into operational flood forecasting. 1D cloud model based QPF modeling process was developed, that relates cloud top temperature below 235oK, reflectance above 28% and cloud heights above 12000m with tropical rainfall formation within the range of 3-12 mm/hr. A grid based rainfall intensity map was thus produced for Langat River Basin. High correlations of R2 above 0.75 were observed for cloud top temperature processed from GOES data and recorded rainfall of severe monsoon weather of selected stations in Terengganu, Kuantan and Kota Bahru. Hydrodynamic and rainfall-runoff simulation were performed using MIKE 11 hydrological model and a suitably auto-calibrated NAM runoff model. The hydrological model was tested for rainfall runoff process using observed hourly rainfall data for the flood event of 27 Sept. to 8 Oct. 2000 as well as rainfall estimation derive from the cloud model QPF using hourly GMS temperature reading for the same storm period. The rainfall- runoff hydrographs generated for the two rainfall sources showed similarities with R2 of 0.9028. The results of the runoff modeling were integrated in MIKE11 GIS model for flood inundation mapping. Separate inundation maps were generated for the observed rainfall and the QPF derive rainfall runoff results for comparison. The accuracies of both maps were verified using grid point location data for flooded areas published in the DID Annual Flood Report. The verification results showed an accuracy of 70% for both flood maps. The methods and processes developed by this study are flexible enough to be applied in other mesoscale and severe storm forecasting particularly a tropical setting. In using NOAA satellite, AVHRR data can be received and processed in advance of 6h of the actual rainfall event. This study should thus prove very useful for the assimilation of grid based rainfall intensity into and improve short- range operational flood forecast.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Billa, Lawal
author_facet	Billa, Lawal
author_sort	Billa, Lawal
title	Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
title_short	Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
title_full	Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
title_fullStr	Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
title_full_unstemmed	Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping
title_sort	application of hydro-meteorological model and gis in short range severe flood forecasting and mapping
granting_institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
granting_department	Faculty of Engineering
publishDate	2006
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/421/2/1600468.pdf
_version_	1747810217574268928

Application of Hydro-Meteorological Model and GIS in Short Range Severe Flood Forecasting and Mapping

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