Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah

Forest fire has causes ecosystem disturbances and cause air pollution. In order to reduce the impact there is a need to have an early warning system for fire prevention controlling measures. One of the early warning systems is Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A study has been conducted t develop a...

全面介紹

Saved in:
書目詳細資料
主要作者: Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy
格式: Thesis
語言:English
English
出版: 2006
主題:
在線閱讀:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/5063/1/FH_2006_6a.pdf
標簽: 添加標簽
沒有標簽, 成為第一個標記此記錄!
實物特徵
總結:Forest fire has causes ecosystem disturbances and cause air pollution. In order to reduce the impact there is a need to have an early warning system for fire prevention controlling measures. One of the early warning systems is Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A study has been conducted t develop and use the software to analyse temporal variations in Kudat, Sabah. The KBDI daily values where then model and forecast using Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). The software was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic Version 6.0 with Microsoft Excel (*.xls) supported format with 3 column entry for dates, rainfall and maksimum temperature. Data from Kudat, Sabah were used to calculate the KBDI using the software. The daily KBDI were then analysed using ARMA in the PEST software. The results showed that the mean percentage error is very high because of the error of prediction given in May, July, August and September, calculated the value of 50.04%, 44.69%,44.08 and 61.35% respectively but other months has given in small prediction error, range from 3% to 40%. An error is occurred because of the averaged measurement and the El-Nino phenomenon. Previous studies on the model which related to weather prediction given a problem in accuracy when El-Nino occurred. To reduce an error of prediction model caused by El-Nino, it is suggested to add more data in current calculation