Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah

Forest fire has causes ecosystem disturbances and cause air pollution. In order to reduce the impact there is a need to have an early warning system for fire prevention controlling measures. One of the early warning systems is Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A study has been conducted t develop a...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English
Published:	2006
Subjects:	Drought forecasting - Computer software - Development - Sabah - Kudat - Case studies
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/5063/1/FH_2006_6a.pdf
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

id	my-upm-ir.5063
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-upm-ir.50632013-05-27T07:20:08Z Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah 2006 Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy Forest fire has causes ecosystem disturbances and cause air pollution. In order to reduce the impact there is a need to have an early warning system for fire prevention controlling measures. One of the early warning systems is Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A study has been conducted t develop and use the software to analyse temporal variations in Kudat, Sabah. The KBDI daily values where then model and forecast using Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). The software was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic Version 6.0 with Microsoft Excel (*.xls) supported format with 3 column entry for dates, rainfall and maksimum temperature. Data from Kudat, Sabah were used to calculate the KBDI using the software. The daily KBDI were then analysed using ARMA in the PEST software. The results showed that the mean percentage error is very high because of the error of prediction given in May, July, August and September, calculated the value of 50.04%, 44.69%,44.08 and 61.35% respectively but other months has given in small prediction error, range from 3% to 40%. An error is occurred because of the averaged measurement and the El-Nino phenomenon. Previous studies on the model which related to weather prediction given a problem in accuracy when El-Nino occurred. To reduce an error of prediction model caused by El-Nino, it is suggested to add more data in current calculation Drought forecasting - Computer software - Development - Sabah - Kudat - Case studies 2006 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/5063/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/5063/1/FH_2006_6a.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Putra Malaysia Drought forecasting - Computer software - Development - Sabah - Kudat - Case studies Faculty Forestry English
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English English
topic	Drought forecasting - Computer software - Development - Sabah - Kudat - Case studies
spellingShingle	Drought forecasting - Computer software - Development - Sabah - Kudat - Case studies Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
description	Forest fire has causes ecosystem disturbances and cause air pollution. In order to reduce the impact there is a need to have an early warning system for fire prevention controlling measures. One of the early warning systems is Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A study has been conducted t develop and use the software to analyse temporal variations in Kudat, Sabah. The KBDI daily values where then model and forecast using Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). The software was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic Version 6.0 with Microsoft Excel (*.xls) supported format with 3 column entry for dates, rainfall and maksimum temperature. Data from Kudat, Sabah were used to calculate the KBDI using the software. The daily KBDI were then analysed using ARMA in the PEST software. The results showed that the mean percentage error is very high because of the error of prediction given in May, July, August and September, calculated the value of 50.04%, 44.69%,44.08 and 61.35% respectively but other months has given in small prediction error, range from 3% to 40%. An error is occurred because of the averaged measurement and the El-Nino phenomenon. Previous studies on the model which related to weather prediction given a problem in accuracy when El-Nino occurred. To reduce an error of prediction model caused by El-Nino, it is suggested to add more data in current calculation
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy
author_facet	Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy
author_sort	Mohd Yusof, Mohd Saidy
title	Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
title_short	Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
title_full	Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
title_fullStr	Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
title_full_unstemmed	Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah
title_sort	software development and time series analysis of keetch-byram drought indexs at kudat, sabah
granting_institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
granting_department	Faculty Forestry
publishDate	2006
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/5063/1/FH_2006_6a.pdf
_version_	1747810342971375616

Software Development And Time Series Analysis Of Keetch-Byram Drought Indexs At Kudat, Sabah

Similar Items