Role of trade data discrepancy in the exchange rate-trade dilemma
Previous empirical studies investigating the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on sectoral trade balance have widely ignored the fact that trade data can be substantially inaccurate. By comparing what each side of a bilateral trade claims to have actually traded with the other, the probl...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/70212/1/FEP%202014%2027%20-%20IR.pdf |
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| Summary: | Previous empirical studies investigating the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on
sectoral trade balance have widely ignored the fact that trade data can be substantially
inaccurate. By comparing what each side of a bilateral trade claims to have actually traded
with the other, the problem of sectoral trade data discrepancy can be assessed. For the very
crucial case of the US-China bilateral trade, this research compiles all available sectoral
trade data as reported by both countries over 26 years and 1366 sectors of trade. This study
first assesses the discrepancy in trade data using the tools of Reports Ratio and Pearson’s
Product-Moment Correlation Function. Subsequently, trade balance as reported by both
China and the US independently is established for 55 sectors of average discrepancy. After
it, the only dynamic theory in concept on this issue, the J-Curve Theory, is tested for the
55 sectors using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique of cointegration and Error
Correction Mechanism to capture the short and long-run effects. The J-Curve is tested
twice for each sector, each time using the data reported by one partner only, ceteris
paribus. The results of this research confirm the existence of the research problem and
draw many conclusions on the issue. First, there is a profound trade data discrepancy
between the US and China, although the data is still heading towards reconciliation over
time. Second, the strength of discrepancy depends on many factors, i.e. the direction of
trade flow, the level of disaggregation of trade data, and time. Third, the use of different
trade data resources for assessing the J-Curve yields relatively different coefficient
estimates for real exchange rate, in some cases, the coefficient estimates are contradictory
even. Fourth, the effects of Yuan depreciation on the US bilateral trade deficit with China
are still apparent and affluent using either data resource, while coefficient estimates
claiming the opposite are highly mixed and inconsistent. This study proposes Mutual
Confirmation as a technique for improving the reliability of the J-Curve empirical results.
That is, an estimation of the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance
should be supported using the data reported by both trade partners separately. |
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