Supply response of wheat and barley in Iraq
Iraq's agricultural sector employs more than 30% of the population and it is the main source of food for the population as well as animal feed. It also provides raw material for processing for many industries in Iraq. Wheat and barley can be considered as the most important major cereal crop...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/70338/1/FP%202014%2083%20-%20IR.pdf |
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| Summary: | Iraq's agricultural sector employs more than 30% of the population and it is the main
source of food for the population as well as animal feed. It also provides raw material
for processing for many industries in Iraq. Wheat and barley can be considered as
the most important major cereal crops in Iraq and the world for being the main food
crops for the majority of the world's population, and its strong strategic relationship
to food security. In Iraq, cereal production has been marked by fluctuations during
1980-2011 with an average annual production of 2,364 thousand tons, ranging from
the highest production of 2,586 thousand tons in 2002 and the lowest production of
1,099 thousand tons in 1984. This fluctuation in production is due to several different
reasons, including water scarcity, low rainfall, and not encouraging pricing policies
and because of political circumstances. All these variables caused the reducing in the
production of many crops, especially wheat and barley production in Iraq. Many
variables affect the supply response on crops, the majority of the researchers usually
focused on price and non-price variables, but they had not specified the kind of the
irrigation. It can be clearly seen in this study was specified the kinds of irrigation for
two kinds of irrigation firstly the irrigation by the river and secondly the irrigation by
the rainfall, as well as the auto-regressive distributed lag Model (ARDL), Bounds
testing approach to Co integration and the error correction model applied in this
studythe auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL)model(Pesaran, Shin, & Smith, 2001).
Production of wheat and barley was represented the dependent variable and the
cultivated area, irrigation and crop price was represented the independent variables
(explanatory variables). The unit root test was applied to understand these variables
were stationary or not stationary by the ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test).From
ARDL, the F-statistic was used to test for Co integration between the variables. The
long-run and the short-run relationship between the variables were then identified.
Results indicated that barley area and its determinants; the relative price of wheat is
Co integrated. The results also indicated that barley acreage is responsive to domestic
price. This implies that price can be used as instruments to maintain favourable
planted area. The result of production for barley irrigated by river (PRIB) and rain
(PRAB) with an F-statistic of 11.9 and 12.03 respectively, and significant at 1 %. For
wheat crop the F-statistic7.09 and 9.67 respectively. That implies that there is Co
integration between the variables. For long-run and short-run periods, there is a significant effect for cultivation area and irrigation on the production while price also
has a significant effect on the production in the long run. In conclusion, cultivation
area, irrigation and crop prices have significant impacts on the production in the long
run. Thus, the government should introduce policies which have significant impact
on production by using a new system of irrigation and use new technology to extend
the area planted and at the same time create a price policy to increase the production
of wheat and barley. |
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