Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov

During the past 90 years, Kirkuk City has grown rapidly due to the exploitation of its oil reserves. As a multi-ethnic city, the presence of oil has been a source of ethnic conflict among the Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. Kirkuk has long been considered an ethnic powder keg waiting to explode. Each grou...

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Main Author:	Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2016
Subjects:	Historical geography - Methodology Human geography - Maps
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/75429/1/FRSB%202016%2013%20IR.pdf
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spelling	my-upm-ir.754292019-10-18T07:10:23Z Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov 2016-11 Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab During the past 90 years, Kirkuk City has grown rapidly due to the exploitation of its oil reserves. As a multi-ethnic city, the presence of oil has been a source of ethnic conflict among the Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. Kirkuk has long been considered an ethnic powder keg waiting to explode. Each group’s own distinctive historical narrative became increasingly politicised and antagonistic during the twentieth century. The Iraqi Government implemented an aggressive and extensive social engineering policy designed to manage potential political and security threats to the oilfields that had been established in Kirkuk. A new social policy of Arabisation was implemented; a preferential treatment policy which favoured the ethnic Arabs over non-Arabs. However, while the ethnic Arabs benefitted from the affirmative action policy, the other ethnicities were expelled and this led to rising ethnic tension; planting a seed of antagonism towards ethnic Arabs and led to negative social relations between ethnic groups, which was augmented by residential segregation that divided the three major ethnic groups further. Following the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurds have become more politically powerful and an importuned force in the politics of the state, which in turn is even more important than the demographic issues in the powerful symbol of Kirkuk. As a reaction, another demographic change has occurred with informal rapid urban growth represented by many Kurdish returnees following the new Kurd government policy of Kurdification. The demographic change is a layered and multi-faceted social interaction that in many ways makes the resolution of Kirkuk’s ethno-political tension difficult to achieve, particularly when this complex picture is coloured by the presence of immense quantities of oil reserves. This thesis used GIS and CA- Markov to examine Kirkuk City’s urban growth, the factors that influenced its development, the impact of socio-political conflict represented by ethnic conflict on urban growth, the reshaping of the Master Plan and the pattern of settlement development of the city. A model was developed to simulate the residential expansion based on ethno-political conflict areas for each ethnic group in order to answer the question: “Dose political transition based on ethnicity affect the shape of a city master plan?”. The findings of the study suggested that there are significant effects of ethno-political factors in urban growth and planning, as well as future trends. However, the effect of the other physical, environmental and socio economic factors were not strong as a determinant of social interaction and integration, and other non-spatial factors were more important. The ethno-political factors shaped the city’s Master Plan toward the north–eastern side of the city even though it was not recommended in the previous Master Plan. The findings visualised the shape of the future Master Plan based on ethnicity. According to all the above-mentioned factors, if the status of Kirkuk governorate is not settled politically, Kirkuk City’s planning pattern will continue to be heterogeneous. The findings have important policy implications to avoid the segregation of the society of Kirkuk City and will assist policy makers and urban planners to consider the trends in urban growth expansion and give the advantages and consequences for each ethnic scenario. Historical geography - Methodology Human geography - Maps 2016-11 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/75429/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/75429/1/FRSB%202016%2013%20IR.pdf text en public doctoral Universiti Putra Malaysia Historical geography - Methodology Human geography - Maps
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	Historical geography - Methodology Human geography - Maps
spellingShingle	Historical geography - Methodology Human geography - Maps Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
description	During the past 90 years, Kirkuk City has grown rapidly due to the exploitation of its oil reserves. As a multi-ethnic city, the presence of oil has been a source of ethnic conflict among the Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. Kirkuk has long been considered an ethnic powder keg waiting to explode. Each group’s own distinctive historical narrative became increasingly politicised and antagonistic during the twentieth century. The Iraqi Government implemented an aggressive and extensive social engineering policy designed to manage potential political and security threats to the oilfields that had been established in Kirkuk. A new social policy of Arabisation was implemented; a preferential treatment policy which favoured the ethnic Arabs over non-Arabs. However, while the ethnic Arabs benefitted from the affirmative action policy, the other ethnicities were expelled and this led to rising ethnic tension; planting a seed of antagonism towards ethnic Arabs and led to negative social relations between ethnic groups, which was augmented by residential segregation that divided the three major ethnic groups further. Following the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurds have become more politically powerful and an importuned force in the politics of the state, which in turn is even more important than the demographic issues in the powerful symbol of Kirkuk. As a reaction, another demographic change has occurred with informal rapid urban growth represented by many Kurdish returnees following the new Kurd government policy of Kurdification. The demographic change is a layered and multi-faceted social interaction that in many ways makes the resolution of Kirkuk’s ethno-political tension difficult to achieve, particularly when this complex picture is coloured by the presence of immense quantities of oil reserves. This thesis used GIS and CA- Markov to examine Kirkuk City’s urban growth, the factors that influenced its development, the impact of socio-political conflict represented by ethnic conflict on urban growth, the reshaping of the Master Plan and the pattern of settlement development of the city. A model was developed to simulate the residential expansion based on ethno-political conflict areas for each ethnic group in order to answer the question: “Dose political transition based on ethnicity affect the shape of a city master plan?”. The findings of the study suggested that there are significant effects of ethno-political factors in urban growth and planning, as well as future trends. However, the effect of the other physical, environmental and socio economic factors were not strong as a determinant of social interaction and integration, and other non-spatial factors were more important. The ethno-political factors shaped the city’s Master Plan toward the north–eastern side of the city even though it was not recommended in the previous Master Plan. The findings visualised the shape of the future Master Plan based on ethnicity. According to all the above-mentioned factors, if the status of Kirkuk governorate is not settled politically, Kirkuk City’s planning pattern will continue to be heterogeneous. The findings have important policy implications to avoid the segregation of the society of Kirkuk City and will assist policy makers and urban planners to consider the trends in urban growth expansion and give the advantages and consequences for each ethnic scenario.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab
author_facet	Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab
author_sort	Abdula, Mazen Abdilwahab
title	Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
title_short	Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
title_full	Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
title_fullStr	Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov
title_sort	modelling rapid urban growth of kirkuk city based on ethnicity factors using gis and cellular automata-markov
granting_institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
publishDate	2016
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/75429/1/FRSB%202016%2013%20IR.pdf
_version_	1747813049070256128

Modelling rapid urban growth of Kirkuk City based on ethnicity factors using GIS and cellular automata-Markov

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