Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah

This study investigates the main factors affecting supply and demand of log and sawn timber of Sabah. The partial adjustment and adaptive expectation (PAAE) frameworks for log and sawn timber were developed and estimated using time series data. The regression results and simulation tests indica...

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Main Author:	Mais, Kinus
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English
Published:	1992
Subjects:	Lumbering - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Timber - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/8038/1/FEP_1992_2_A.pdf
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id	my-upm-ir.8038
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-upm-ir.80382010-10-11T04:34:59Z Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah 1992 Mais, Kinus This study investigates the main factors affecting supply and demand of log and sawn timber of Sabah. The partial adjustment and adaptive expectation (PAAE) frameworks for log and sawn timber were developed and estimated using time series data. The regression results and simulation tests indicate that the estimated models are satisfactory. All the significant coefficients have the correct signs. The Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Theil inequality Coefficient values of the estimated models are low. The finding sindicate that the long run supply elasticity value with respect to logged area is low (0.19). On the contrary the factors influencing domestic demand for log are elastic. The long run domestic demand elasticity value with respect to domestic price and construct ion activities are -1.23 and 2.43 respectively. In the world market, log export demand is influenced by export price and construct ion activities of industrial countries. The long run export demand elasticity value with respect to export price and industrial construct ion activities are (-7.61) and (3.34) respectively. In the sawn timber market, the long run supply elasticity value with respect to domestic price, log input price,saw milling recovery rate and dummy variable for government incentives are 5.23, -0.79, 0.64, and 0.5 1 respectively. On the domestic demand side, only the construction activity is found to have an influence o n the quantity demanded. The long run domestic demand elasticity with respect to this variable is 7.54. Meanwhile in the world market, the long run export demand elasticity value with respect to export price, real effective exchange rate, construct ion activities of industrial countries and world economic recession are -4.00, -1.32, 4.21 and -0.35 respectively. The regression results revealed that the government policy to reduce logging area does not seem to have a substantial impact on the supply of logs. Also indirectly, log export royalty and restriction ion policies could influence log export volume(ceteris peribus). The government incentives such as low royalty rates on logs utilised domestic ally can encourage further down stream processing. Lumbering - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Timber - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies 1992 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/8038/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/8038/1/FEP_1992_2_A.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Pertanian Malaysia Lumbering - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Timber - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Faculty of Economics and Management English
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English English
topic	Lumbering - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Timber - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies
spellingShingle	Lumbering - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Timber - Sabah - Economic aspects - Case studies Mais, Kinus Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
description	This study investigates the main factors affecting supply and demand of log and sawn timber of Sabah. The partial adjustment and adaptive expectation (PAAE) frameworks for log and sawn timber were developed and estimated using time series data. The regression results and simulation tests indicate that the estimated models are satisfactory. All the significant coefficients have the correct signs. The Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Theil inequality Coefficient values of the estimated models are low. The finding sindicate that the long run supply elasticity value with respect to logged area is low (0.19). On the contrary the factors influencing domestic demand for log are elastic. The long run domestic demand elasticity value with respect to domestic price and construct ion activities are -1.23 and 2.43 respectively. In the world market, log export demand is influenced by export price and construct ion activities of industrial countries. The long run export demand elasticity value with respect to export price and industrial construct ion activities are (-7.61) and (3.34) respectively. In the sawn timber market, the long run supply elasticity value with respect to domestic price, log input price,saw milling recovery rate and dummy variable for government incentives are 5.23, -0.79, 0.64, and 0.5 1 respectively. On the domestic demand side, only the construction activity is found to have an influence o n the quantity demanded. The long run domestic demand elasticity with respect to this variable is 7.54. Meanwhile in the world market, the long run export demand elasticity value with respect to export price, real effective exchange rate, construct ion activities of industrial countries and world economic recession are -4.00, -1.32, 4.21 and -0.35 respectively. The regression results revealed that the government policy to reduce logging area does not seem to have a substantial impact on the supply of logs. Also indirectly, log export royalty and restriction ion policies could influence log export volume(ceteris peribus). The government incentives such as low royalty rates on logs utilised domestic ally can encourage further down stream processing.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Mais, Kinus
author_facet	Mais, Kinus
author_sort	Mais, Kinus
title	Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
title_short	Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
title_full	Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
title_fullStr	Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
title_full_unstemmed	Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah
title_sort	econometric analysis of supply and demand for log and sawn timber in sabah
granting_institution	Universiti Pertanian Malaysia
granting_department	Faculty of Economics and Management
publishDate	1992
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/8038/1/FEP_1992_2_A.pdf
_version_	1747810745039454208

Econometric Analysis of Supply and Demand for Log and Sawn Timber in Sabah

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