Impact of oil revenue on economic growth, agriculture and tourism sectors of developing oil exporting countries
This study investigates the impact of oil revenue on economic growth, agriculture and tourism in developing oil-exporting countries, which are divided into major and minor oil-exporting countries based on their oil revenue shares to their respective GDPs. While developing oil-exporting countries...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/83090/1/FEP%202019%2011%20ir.pdf |
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| Summary: | This study investigates the impact of oil revenue on economic growth, agriculture and
tourism in developing oil-exporting countries, which are divided into major and minor
oil-exporting countries based on their oil revenue shares to their respective GDPs.
While developing oil-exporting countries have gained massive oil income, they suffer
from Dutch disease in different manners, such as low economic growth and lagging
non-oil sectors. Heterogeneities exist among developing oil-exporting countries. Panel
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling is used to achieve the objectives
of the study.
The first objective of this study is to examine the impact of oil revenue on economic
growth for 25 developing oil-exporting countries (major and minor), conditional to
the different level of the real effective exchange rate. The results show that the longrun
effect of oil revenue on economic growth is significant only for the full sample,
while the effect is highly positive and significant in the short run for all groups. Also,
the indirect effect of the marginal effect of oil revenue on economic growth is
statistically insignificant for all groups. However, the indirect effect of the oil price on
economic growth is statistically significant and confirms the same direction of the
marginal effects of oil revenue for all groups. In the case of the major group, the
indirect effect of oil price shows the symptom of Dutch disease and proving the
existence of Dutch disease. That means that in major oil-exporting countries, the oil
price is harmful for economic growth when the real effective exchange rate
appreciates. The second objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of oil revenue
on the agriculture sector of 25 developing oil-exporting countries (major and minor),
conditional to the different level of the real effective exchange rate. The regression
results of the baseline model indicate that oil revenue in the long and short term has
adverse and highly significant effects on the value added of agriculture in the full
sample, as well as in the cases of major and minor oil-exporting countries. Despite this
result, the magnitude of the impact in the major oil-exporting countries is higher than
that of the minor oil-exporting countries. The results of marginal effects for the minor
group show that oil revenue indirectly slows down the value added of agriculture when
the real effective exchange rate appreciates. Otherwise, oil revenue benefits
agriculture if the real effective exchange rate depreciates. However, in the case of
major group, the marginal effect shows that oil revenue decreases the value added of
agriculture, even in the presence of real effective exchange rate depreciation.
The third objective of this study is to find the relationship between oil revenue and the
tourism sector of oil-exporting countries based on the different level of the real
effective exchange rate. The estimations show a direct positive effect of oil revenue
on tourism income for the entire sample, and for the minor group. The results show an
adverse but insignificant for the major group. Additionally, the findings of the
marginal effect of oil revenue on tourism income support the Dutch disease
phenomenon for the entire sample and the major group. That means the marginal
effects of oil revenue are negative and significant at the lower-level of the real
effective exchange rate (appreciation) but positive and significant at the higher-level
of the real effective exchange rate (depreciation). This result is contrary to the minor
group but insignificant.
Overall the findings and results support the hypotheses of this study, which focuses
on the differential behaviour of major and minor oil-exporting countries toward
economic growth and non-oil sectors (the agriculture and tourism sectors). More
specifically, the results of the direct and indirect effects of oil revenue show that major
oil-exporting countries suffer from Dutch disease. The results of this study have policy
implications, pointing to the need to eliminate this phenomenon. First, it is necessary
for governments of oil-exporting countries to adopt a fiscal policy that limits the role
of spending effects as a source of appreciation to the real effective exchange rate.
Secondly, policymakers should adopt and improve policy instruments that support and
promote the non-oil sectors—including proper macroeconomic policy, such as
enhancing public investment in the agriculture and tourism sectors. Finally, economic
diversification is required. Using oil revenue to build high-quality infrastructure may
improve the non-oil sectors. Then, dynamic growth in the oil sector may lead to
sustainable economic growth in the long run. |
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