Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade

Smoking is one of the significant public health threats and killing about six million people annually. Therefore, World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) since 2003, then later, WHO released the package of six MPOWER measure to assist the country...

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Main Author:	Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2019
Subjects:	Tobacco - Taxation - Law and legislation Cigarettes - Taxation Tobacco use - Prevention
Online Access:	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/83091/1/FEP%202019%2012%20ir.pdf
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id	my-upm-ir.83091
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-upm-ir.830912022-01-11T01:00:50Z Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade 2019-01 Bui, Wency Kher Thinng Smoking is one of the significant public health threats and killing about six million people annually. Therefore, World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) since 2003, then later, WHO released the package of six MPOWER measure to assist the country with the implementation of the tobacco control policies. Malaysia officially joined with FCTC in 2005 and improved the Control for Tobacco Products Regulation according to the MPOWER measures in 2008. However, only 0.3% reduction on Malaysian smoking prevalence between the year 2011 and 2015 and such small reduction has become a major concern among the policy-makers to achieve the two targets; non-communicable disease (NCD) voluntary target (15% by 2025) and End-Game target (less than 5% by 2045). Besides, the elimination of illicit cigarette trade is also a concern by policymakers., Therefore, surveillance is indeed to combat the illicit cigarette trade, but these are underground activities and unlikely to get recorded. Yet, the industry-involved studies showed that Malaysia has high illicit cigarette market share, but these studies have been claimed that always exaggerate the incidence of illicit cigarettes. Thus, the tobacco industry also argued that high retail price caused by taxation creates incentives for illicit trade. However, many studies have proven that their arguments are invalid. This study conducted three analysis for three research objectives. First, Abridge SimSmoke model was employed and accompanied by the reinforcement of non-price tobacco policies and taxation; the cigarette retail price is simulated to at least increased from RM16.20 to RM22.05 to achieve the NCD target. However, for the End-Game target, the cigarette retail price is required to be increased to at least RM40.40. Secondly, this study obtained cigarette consumption and sales data from government agencies and conducted the discrepancy method to measure the size of illicit cigarettes in Malaysia. In 2015, 7,718.8 million sticks of illicit cigarettes were consumed and generated at least RM2,161.3 million loss of excise tax revenues. Also, the measure of illicit cigarette market share was exaggerated by the tobacco-involved studies where they are more likely to understate the legal sales data and create a higher rate of illicit market share. Lastly, a panel data analysis of 61 countries for nine years was estimated using the system generalized-method-of-moments estimators. The results diverge from the tobacco industry claims since high retail price does not increase the illicit cigarette trade. The country with better governance can further mitigate illicit problems. Therefore, it requires substantial implementation of tobacco control by the governments and intense enforcement strategy to reduce illicit cigarettes trade. From all the findings, the Malaysian Government should consistently increase tobacco taxation to achieve the targets since the price indicator is not a significant factor in driving the illicit cigarette trade. Instead, enforcing a better governance quality in addressing the problem of illicit cigarette trade. These efforts would potentially reduce the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Malaysia and able to achieve the targets, hence combat the illicit cigarette trade problem. Tobacco - Taxation - Law and legislation Cigarettes - Taxation Tobacco use - Prevention 2019-01 Thesis http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/83091/ http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/83091/1/FEP%202019%2012%20ir.pdf text en public doctoral Universiti Putra Malaysia Tobacco - Taxation - Law and legislation Cigarettes - Taxation Tobacco use - Prevention Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
collection	PSAS Institutional Repository
language	English
advisor	Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
topic	Tobacco - Taxation - Law and legislation Cigarettes - Taxation Tobacco use - Prevention
spellingShingle	Tobacco - Taxation - Law and legislation Cigarettes - Taxation Tobacco use - Prevention Bui, Wency Kher Thinng Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
description	Smoking is one of the significant public health threats and killing about six million people annually. Therefore, World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) since 2003, then later, WHO released the package of six MPOWER measure to assist the country with the implementation of the tobacco control policies. Malaysia officially joined with FCTC in 2005 and improved the Control for Tobacco Products Regulation according to the MPOWER measures in 2008. However, only 0.3% reduction on Malaysian smoking prevalence between the year 2011 and 2015 and such small reduction has become a major concern among the policy-makers to achieve the two targets; non-communicable disease (NCD) voluntary target (15% by 2025) and End-Game target (less than 5% by 2045). Besides, the elimination of illicit cigarette trade is also a concern by policymakers., Therefore, surveillance is indeed to combat the illicit cigarette trade, but these are underground activities and unlikely to get recorded. Yet, the industry-involved studies showed that Malaysia has high illicit cigarette market share, but these studies have been claimed that always exaggerate the incidence of illicit cigarettes. Thus, the tobacco industry also argued that high retail price caused by taxation creates incentives for illicit trade. However, many studies have proven that their arguments are invalid. This study conducted three analysis for three research objectives. First, Abridge SimSmoke model was employed and accompanied by the reinforcement of non-price tobacco policies and taxation; the cigarette retail price is simulated to at least increased from RM16.20 to RM22.05 to achieve the NCD target. However, for the End-Game target, the cigarette retail price is required to be increased to at least RM40.40. Secondly, this study obtained cigarette consumption and sales data from government agencies and conducted the discrepancy method to measure the size of illicit cigarettes in Malaysia. In 2015, 7,718.8 million sticks of illicit cigarettes were consumed and generated at least RM2,161.3 million loss of excise tax revenues. Also, the measure of illicit cigarette market share was exaggerated by the tobacco-involved studies where they are more likely to understate the legal sales data and create a higher rate of illicit market share. Lastly, a panel data analysis of 61 countries for nine years was estimated using the system generalized-method-of-moments estimators. The results diverge from the tobacco industry claims since high retail price does not increase the illicit cigarette trade. The country with better governance can further mitigate illicit problems. Therefore, it requires substantial implementation of tobacco control by the governments and intense enforcement strategy to reduce illicit cigarettes trade. From all the findings, the Malaysian Government should consistently increase tobacco taxation to achieve the targets since the price indicator is not a significant factor in driving the illicit cigarette trade. Instead, enforcing a better governance quality in addressing the problem of illicit cigarette trade. These efforts would potentially reduce the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Malaysia and able to achieve the targets, hence combat the illicit cigarette trade problem.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
author_facet	Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
author_sort	Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
title	Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
title_short	Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
title_full	Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
title_fullStr	Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
title_sort	impact of mpower tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade
granting_institution	Universiti Putra Malaysia
publishDate	2019
url	http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/83091/1/FEP%202019%2012%20ir.pdf
_version_	1747813346285977600

Impact of MPOWER tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and issues of illicit cigarette trade

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