Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries

Kajian ini telah memeriksa pembolehubah-pembolehubah makroekonomi dan kejutan harga minyak di tiga buah negara pengeksport minyak Afrika Sub-Saharan, iaitu Nigeria, Angola dan Gabon. Kajian ini telah menemui bukti limpahan yang tinggi kemudahruapan dari harga minyak benar ke kadar pertukaran benar d...

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Main Author:	Aminu, Abubakar Wambai
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2016
Subjects:	H1-99 Social sciences (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.usm.my/31981/1/ABUBAKAR_WAMBAI_AMINU_24%28NN%29.pdf
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id	my-usm-ep.31981
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-usm-ep.319812019-04-12T05:25:22Z Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries 2016-03 Aminu, Abubakar Wambai H1-99 Social sciences (General) Kajian ini telah memeriksa pembolehubah-pembolehubah makroekonomi dan kejutan harga minyak di tiga buah negara pengeksport minyak Afrika Sub-Saharan, iaitu Nigeria, Angola dan Gabon. Kajian ini telah menemui bukti limpahan yang tinggi kemudahruapan dari harga minyak benar ke kadar pertukaran benar di Nigeria dan Gabon dan limpahan yang rendah kemudahruapan dari harga minyak benar ke kadar pertukaran benar di Angola. Dalam erti kata lain, korelasi kemudahruapan antara kadar pertukaran benar Nigeria dan Gabon dan harga minyak benar didapati adalah lebih tinggi daripada korelasi kemudahruapan yang didapati antara dua pembolehubah itu untuk Angola. Implikasi dasar ekonomi keputusan-keputusan ini adalah bahawa kadar pertukaran benar Nigeria dan Gabon adalah lebih dipacu oleh kemudahruapan harga minyak daripada kadar pertukaran benar Angola, yang menjadi petanda risiko makroekonomi, mengurangkan perdagangan dan pertumbuhan adalah lebih dalam kedua-dua negara itu daripada Angola. Oleh itu, Nigeria dan Gabon lebih mudah terdedah kepada kesan makroekonomi daripada Dutch disease daripada Angola sebagaimana keputusan GARCH multivariat menunjukkan. The study has examined macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks in three Sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries, namely Nigeria, Angola and Gabon. The study has found evidence of high volatility spillover from the real oil price to the real exchange rate in Nigeria and Gabon and low spillover of volatility from the real oil price to the real exchange rate in Angola. In other words, the volatility correlations between the real exchange rates of Nigeria and Gabon and the real oil price have been found to be higher than the volatility correlations between the two variables for Angola. The economic policy implication of these results is that the real exchange rates of Nigeria and Gabon are more driven by the volatility of oil price than the real exchange of Angola, which portends the macroeconomic risk of lowering trade and growth more in the two countries than Angola. Hence, Nigeria and Gabon are more susceptible to the macroeconomic effects of the Dutch disease than Angola as the multivariate GARCH results indicate. 2016-03 Thesis http://eprints.usm.my/31981/ http://eprints.usm.my/31981/1/ABUBAKAR_WAMBAI_AMINU_24%28NN%29.pdf application/pdf en public phd doctoral Universiti Sains Malaysia Pusat Pengajian Sains Kemasyarakatan (School of Social Sciences)
institution	Universiti Sains Malaysia
collection	USM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	H1-99 Social sciences (General)
spellingShingle	H1-99 Social sciences (General) Aminu, Abubakar Wambai Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
description	Kajian ini telah memeriksa pembolehubah-pembolehubah makroekonomi dan kejutan harga minyak di tiga buah negara pengeksport minyak Afrika Sub-Saharan, iaitu Nigeria, Angola dan Gabon. Kajian ini telah menemui bukti limpahan yang tinggi kemudahruapan dari harga minyak benar ke kadar pertukaran benar di Nigeria dan Gabon dan limpahan yang rendah kemudahruapan dari harga minyak benar ke kadar pertukaran benar di Angola. Dalam erti kata lain, korelasi kemudahruapan antara kadar pertukaran benar Nigeria dan Gabon dan harga minyak benar didapati adalah lebih tinggi daripada korelasi kemudahruapan yang didapati antara dua pembolehubah itu untuk Angola. Implikasi dasar ekonomi keputusan-keputusan ini adalah bahawa kadar pertukaran benar Nigeria dan Gabon adalah lebih dipacu oleh kemudahruapan harga minyak daripada kadar pertukaran benar Angola, yang menjadi petanda risiko makroekonomi, mengurangkan perdagangan dan pertumbuhan adalah lebih dalam kedua-dua negara itu daripada Angola. Oleh itu, Nigeria dan Gabon lebih mudah terdedah kepada kesan makroekonomi daripada Dutch disease daripada Angola sebagaimana keputusan GARCH multivariat menunjukkan. The study has examined macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks in three Sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries, namely Nigeria, Angola and Gabon. The study has found evidence of high volatility spillover from the real oil price to the real exchange rate in Nigeria and Gabon and low spillover of volatility from the real oil price to the real exchange rate in Angola. In other words, the volatility correlations between the real exchange rates of Nigeria and Gabon and the real oil price have been found to be higher than the volatility correlations between the two variables for Angola. The economic policy implication of these results is that the real exchange rates of Nigeria and Gabon are more driven by the volatility of oil price than the real exchange of Angola, which portends the macroeconomic risk of lowering trade and growth more in the two countries than Angola. Hence, Nigeria and Gabon are more susceptible to the macroeconomic effects of the Dutch disease than Angola as the multivariate GARCH results indicate.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Aminu, Abubakar Wambai
author_facet	Aminu, Abubakar Wambai
author_sort	Aminu, Abubakar Wambai
title	Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
title_short	Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
title_full	Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
title_fullStr	Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
title_full_unstemmed	Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries
title_sort	macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks in sub-saharan africa oil exporting countries
granting_institution	Universiti Sains Malaysia
granting_department	Pusat Pengajian Sains Kemasyarakatan (School of Social Sciences)
publishDate	2016
url	http://eprints.usm.my/31981/1/ABUBAKAR_WAMBAI_AMINU_24%28NN%29.pdf
_version_	1747820512495534080

Macroeconomic Variables And Oil Price Shocks In Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries

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