Fuzzy-Monte Carlo Simulation For Risk Analysis In Investment Project Evaluation
For a long time, incorporating risk management into the investment project plan has been a popular method in order to mitigate a risk of the investment. However, the problem still exists in risk analysis, such as the difficulties to involve the non-financial risks in an economic model for evaluating...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.usm.my/43277/1/FERDINAND%20MURNI%20HAMUNDU.pdf |
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| Summary: | For a long time, incorporating risk management into the investment project plan has been a popular method in order to mitigate a risk of the investment. However, the problem still exists in risk analysis, such as the difficulties to involve the non-financial risks in an economic model for evaluating the investment project. One of the solutions for modeling of imprecise and the qualitative knowledge is
employing fuzzy logic. Therefore, this thesis proposes Fuzzy-Monte Carlo Simulation that is able to bridging the financial and non-financial risk for estimating the probability of Cumulative Cash Flow (CCF), Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). |
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