Direct And Indirect Spatial Effects Of Spatial Panel Data Models For Trade Of Comesa
The accuracy of geospatial information enables to study the spatial effects of economic variables on the trading activities countries of Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Hence, this thesis describes the spatial panel models for the analysing the trading activities of COMESA...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.usm.my/49760/1/LUBNA%20M%20OMAR%20HAMZALOUH_hj.pdf |
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| Summary: | The accuracy of geospatial information enables to study the spatial effects of economic
variables on the trading activities countries of Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (COMESA). Hence, this thesis describes the spatial panel models
for the analysing the trading activities of COMESA countries. The selection between
spatial random or fixed effects models is determined by Hausman Test. In this thesis,
it found strong evidence that there is a spatial dependence on the export and import
of COMESA. Spatial dependence is a case where results in a given country seem to
depend on results or other the factors from another country. Results showed that the
Spatial Durbin Model with fixed time effect specification should be considered and
tested in most of the states in this thesis. Furthermore, the indirect and direct effects
among COMESA countries were estimated, and the role of direct and indirect effects
in measuring imports and exports were empirically explained. Concerning research
significance and originality, and to the best of researcher’s knowledge, this is the first
thesis that delivers a comprehensive picture of COMESA regional trade. This study
also contributes to the theory by providing a methodological flowchart to help new
researchers save their time by using clear steps to analysis of spatial panel models
and choosing the best spatial model. All explanatory variables for intra-country imports
are statistically significant that include GDP, population, GGFCE, import costs
and exchange rate ( 0.377, -0.206, 0.448, 0.648 and 0.079 respectively). Moreover,
the GDP for intra-countries exports and the cost to export are statistically significant
(0.927, -0.722) respectively. |
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