Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia

National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), Malaysia recorded that for first half of 2018 there was a decline about 37.8% on the residential stock especially for new planned supply and an increment of 18.2% on the overhang units. However, in Penang, it was estimated the demand to reach a total of...

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Main Author:	Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English English
Published:	2019
Subjects:	HD72-88 Economic growth development planning
Online Access:	http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/1/24p%20NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/2/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20WATERMARK.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/3/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf
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spelling	my-uthm-ep.6172021-08-11T04:46:23Z Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia 2019-08 Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen HD72-88 Economic growth, development, planning National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), Malaysia recorded that for first half of 2018 there was a decline about 37.8% on the residential stock especially for new planned supply and an increment of 18.2% on the overhang units. However, in Penang, it was estimated the demand to reach a total of 46,740 units due to the growing number of populations, formation of new households and the replacement of existing houses. Crucial housing challenge in Malaysia, especially in Penang is majorly related to a mismatch in demand and supply for affordable housing. The goal of this research is to predict a housing demand in Penang based on 4 categories of housing which are consist of low-cost, low-medium cost, medium cost, and high-cost houses based on household formation in Penang. The research focused on Penang due to its high and rapidly urbanized area compared to other states in Malaysia. The research used Census Data 2010 from Department of Statistic Malaysia to determine the headship rate. The Headship Rate Method applied to obtain the household formation. An extensive literature review was done on studies on housing demand and prediction method. A questionnaire was designed and approved by the expert before distributed to 400 households. The questionnaire was distributed to five districts in Penang and the respondents or household were divided according to 14 levels of age group. Multinomial Logit analysis was carried out to determine the choice of probability on house type selection and to produce a Choice Probabilities (CP) Model. The result showed that medium cost housing was the most preferable type of house with the highest CP value of 0.4875. Then, using data collected from Department of Statistics Malaysia, population prediction for 14 level age groups from years 1970 until years 2020 were determined using Double Exponential Smoothing method. Total housing demand in Penang was obtained by multiplying the population with headship. The actual and projected data for the prediction model was validated using MAPE and result show indirectly confidence level for 33.50% which categorized as acceptable. This prediction can assist local authorities, developers, consultants, contractors to plan which type of housing to construct based on demand in the future. 2019-08 Thesis http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/ http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/1/24p%20NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI.pdf text en public http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/2/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20WATERMARK.pdf text en validuser http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/3/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf text en staffonly mphil masters Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia Fakulti Kejuruteraan Awam dan Alam Bina
institution	Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
collection	UTHM Institutional Repository
language	English English English
topic	HD72-88 Economic growth development planning
spellingShingle	HD72-88 Economic growth development planning Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
description	National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), Malaysia recorded that for first half of 2018 there was a decline about 37.8% on the residential stock especially for new planned supply and an increment of 18.2% on the overhang units. However, in Penang, it was estimated the demand to reach a total of 46,740 units due to the growing number of populations, formation of new households and the replacement of existing houses. Crucial housing challenge in Malaysia, especially in Penang is majorly related to a mismatch in demand and supply for affordable housing. The goal of this research is to predict a housing demand in Penang based on 4 categories of housing which are consist of low-cost, low-medium cost, medium cost, and high-cost houses based on household formation in Penang. The research focused on Penang due to its high and rapidly urbanized area compared to other states in Malaysia. The research used Census Data 2010 from Department of Statistic Malaysia to determine the headship rate. The Headship Rate Method applied to obtain the household formation. An extensive literature review was done on studies on housing demand and prediction method. A questionnaire was designed and approved by the expert before distributed to 400 households. The questionnaire was distributed to five districts in Penang and the respondents or household were divided according to 14 levels of age group. Multinomial Logit analysis was carried out to determine the choice of probability on house type selection and to produce a Choice Probabilities (CP) Model. The result showed that medium cost housing was the most preferable type of house with the highest CP value of 0.4875. Then, using data collected from Department of Statistics Malaysia, population prediction for 14 level age groups from years 1970 until years 2020 were determined using Double Exponential Smoothing method. Total housing demand in Penang was obtained by multiplying the population with headship. The actual and projected data for the prediction model was validated using MAPE and result show indirectly confidence level for 33.50% which categorized as acceptable. This prediction can assist local authorities, developers, consultants, contractors to plan which type of housing to construct based on demand in the future.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Master of Philosophy (M.Phil.)
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen
author_facet	Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen
author_sort	Mohd Ali, Nor Helmie Shahreen
title	Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
title_short	Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
title_full	Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
title_fullStr	Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia
title_sort	housing demand prediction in penang, malaysia
granting_institution	Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
granting_department	Fakulti Kejuruteraan Awam dan Alam Bina
publishDate	2019
url	http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/1/24p%20NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/2/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20WATERMARK.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/617/3/NOR%20HELMIE%20SHAHREEN%20MOHD%20ALI%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf
_version_	1747830647093723136

Housing demand prediction in Penang, Malaysia

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