Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data

Serious tourism forecasting spans over three decades. A number of tourism forecasters have noted that complex forecasting models are seldom more accurate in predicting the future than simple ones. Hence, in this study, it shows through a Johor tourism forecasting comparison using the naïve model, mo...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2009
Subjects:	QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/12414/6/NurulFarhanaZolkipliMFS2009.pdf
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

id	my-utm-ep.12414
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-utm-ep.124142017-09-20T07:09:18Z Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data 2009-11 Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana QA Mathematics Serious tourism forecasting spans over three decades. A number of tourism forecasters have noted that complex forecasting models are seldom more accurate in predicting the future than simple ones. Hence, in this study, it shows through a Johor tourism forecasting comparison using the naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing. An approach to selecting the method appropriate to Johor tourism data is based on criteria which are Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing are relatively simple to apply, requiring no more than a data series and a computer spreadsheet program. This study also explores the need of Tabu Search method in implying forecast. Tabu Search will be used to ensure the pattern of the studied data by searching the value of weighted constants. The confirmation is performed by Automated Computerized Forecasting (ACF) System. 2009-11 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/12414/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/12414/6/NurulFarhanaZolkipliMFS2009.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science Faculty of Science
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	QA Mathematics Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
description	Serious tourism forecasting spans over three decades. A number of tourism forecasters have noted that complex forecasting models are seldom more accurate in predicting the future than simple ones. Hence, in this study, it shows through a Johor tourism forecasting comparison using the naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing. An approach to selecting the method appropriate to Johor tourism data is based on criteria which are Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing are relatively simple to apply, requiring no more than a data series and a computer spreadsheet program. This study also explores the need of Tabu Search method in implying forecast. Tabu Search will be used to ensure the pattern of the studied data by searching the value of weighted constants. The confirmation is performed by Automated Computerized Forecasting (ACF) System.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana
author_facet	Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana
author_sort	Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana
title	Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
title_short	Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
title_full	Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
title_fullStr	Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data
title_sort	forecasting domestic tourism : application to johor tourism data
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science
granting_department	Faculty of Science
publishDate	2009
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/12414/6/NurulFarhanaZolkipliMFS2009.pdf
_version_	1747814935180607488

Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data

Similar Items