Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm

A powerful technique based on adaptive heuristic namely Genetic Algorithm is widely used in many fields. This technique is very popular for solving global optimization problems. In this thesis, the Genetic Algorithm approach is used to estimate the parameters of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing met...

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Main Author:	Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2013
Subjects:	Q Science (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/32356/1/NurIntanLiyanaMohdAzmiMFS2013.pdf
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spelling	my-utm-ep.323562017-09-14T00:11:22Z Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm 2013-01 Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana Q Science (General) A powerful technique based on adaptive heuristic namely Genetic Algorithm is widely used in many fields. This technique is very popular for solving global optimization problems. In this thesis, the Genetic Algorithm approach is used to estimate the parameters of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing method. The value of a combination of three parameters to be optimized, namely �, � and must lie between 0 and 1 by minimizing the one-step ahead forecasting accuracy of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Moreover, the difference of the initialization method, population size and crossover probability were also used, so that the comparative study of minimum value of MAPE can be done. The overall results of the Genetic Algorithm are compared with the conventional methods. From this study, it was found that the genetic algorithm outperformed the conventional method by giving the lowest value of MAPE. Hence, this proved that the genetic algorithm is effective for estimating Holt-Winter parameters. The data used in this study are monthly data set for the total number of tourist arrivals to Langkawi from 2002 until 2011. This investigation is done using computer simulations programmed by Microsoft Visual Studio 2010. 2013-01 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/32356/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/32356/1/NurIntanLiyanaMohdAzmiMFS2013.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science Faculty of Science
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	Q Science (General)
spellingShingle	Q Science (General) Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
description	A powerful technique based on adaptive heuristic namely Genetic Algorithm is widely used in many fields. This technique is very popular for solving global optimization problems. In this thesis, the Genetic Algorithm approach is used to estimate the parameters of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing method. The value of a combination of three parameters to be optimized, namely �, � and must lie between 0 and 1 by minimizing the one-step ahead forecasting accuracy of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Moreover, the difference of the initialization method, population size and crossover probability were also used, so that the comparative study of minimum value of MAPE can be done. The overall results of the Genetic Algorithm are compared with the conventional methods. From this study, it was found that the genetic algorithm outperformed the conventional method by giving the lowest value of MAPE. Hence, this proved that the genetic algorithm is effective for estimating Holt-Winter parameters. The data used in this study are monthly data set for the total number of tourist arrivals to Langkawi from 2002 until 2011. This investigation is done using computer simulations programmed by Microsoft Visual Studio 2010.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana
author_facet	Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana
author_sort	Mohd. Azmi, Nur Intan Liyana
title	Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
title_short	Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
title_full	Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
title_fullStr	Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
title_full_unstemmed	Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
title_sort	parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science
granting_department	Faculty of Science
publishDate	2013
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/32356/1/NurIntanLiyanaMohdAzmiMFS2013.pdf
_version_	1747815982782480384

Parameters estimation of holt-winter smoothing method using genetic algorithm

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