An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area

Many Climate Models have been developed to assist scientist to forecast climate changes. The Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) model is considered a new recent model to perform this task. The aim of this study is to explore the applications of ASD model in the projection of the future climate...

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Main Author:	Talib, Saif Ali
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2014
Subjects:	GB Physical geography
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/41586/1/SaifAliTalibMFKA2014.pdf
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spelling	my-utm-ep.415862017-09-11T06:41:00Z An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area 2014-01 Talib, Saif Ali GB Physical geography Many Climate Models have been developed to assist scientist to forecast climate changes. The Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) model is considered a new recent model to perform this task. The aim of this study is to explore the applications of ASD model in the projection of the future climate changes in humid tropical region. Global Climate Models (GCMs) provides climate impacts information from higher resolution, but there are many impacts require climate information of a smaller resolution. Downscaling is a method to link global scaling prediction to regional prediction. NCEP and CGCM3.1 predictors are used to link these two scales. Multi Linear Regression approach in the ASD model is applied to calibrate NCEP predictors with rainfall data for the period 1961 to 1975 and the results shows that the three stations were calibrated with low RMSE values. The results are validated by using CGCM3.1 and NCEP data for the period 1976 to 1990. The geographic location of the predictors has an influence on the number of predictors available, since the selected station is located within a grid box near the equator making it affected by coriolis effect, limited set of predictors are available. A2 and A1B SRES emission scenarios are used for future projection scenarios for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. Five statistical indices that are used namely: mean rainfall, Standard Deviation, 90th percentile, wet days and Consecutive Dry days has been evaluated. A2 and A1B scenarios results shows that certain months will experience an increase in rainfall in terms of intensity and frequency while other months will experience a significant decline. 2014-01 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/41586/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/41586/1/SaifAliTalibMFKA2014.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering Faculty of Civil Engineering
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	GB Physical geography
spellingShingle	GB Physical geography Talib, Saif Ali An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
description	Many Climate Models have been developed to assist scientist to forecast climate changes. The Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) model is considered a new recent model to perform this task. The aim of this study is to explore the applications of ASD model in the projection of the future climate changes in humid tropical region. Global Climate Models (GCMs) provides climate impacts information from higher resolution, but there are many impacts require climate information of a smaller resolution. Downscaling is a method to link global scaling prediction to regional prediction. NCEP and CGCM3.1 predictors are used to link these two scales. Multi Linear Regression approach in the ASD model is applied to calibrate NCEP predictors with rainfall data for the period 1961 to 1975 and the results shows that the three stations were calibrated with low RMSE values. The results are validated by using CGCM3.1 and NCEP data for the period 1976 to 1990. The geographic location of the predictors has an influence on the number of predictors available, since the selected station is located within a grid box near the equator making it affected by coriolis effect, limited set of predictors are available. A2 and A1B SRES emission scenarios are used for future projection scenarios for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. Five statistical indices that are used namely: mean rainfall, Standard Deviation, 90th percentile, wet days and Consecutive Dry days has been evaluated. A2 and A1B scenarios results shows that certain months will experience an increase in rainfall in terms of intensity and frequency while other months will experience a significant decline.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Talib, Saif Ali
author_facet	Talib, Saif Ali
author_sort	Talib, Saif Ali
title	An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
title_short	An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
title_full	An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
title_fullStr	An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
title_full_unstemmed	An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
title_sort	automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering
granting_department	Faculty of Civil Engineering
publishDate	2014
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/41586/1/SaifAliTalibMFKA2014.pdf
_version_	1747816576531300352

An automated ststistical downscaling approach for hydrological based climate change in humid tropical area

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