Development of demand forecasting model for new product

Forecasting new product sales or service is a critical process in marketing strategies and product performance for an organisation. There are several methods to forecast new product sales or service and the common method used in industry nowadays is Bass Diffusion Model. Since the development of the...

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Main Author:	Abu, Noratikah
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2016
Subjects:	QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/78318/1/NoratikahAbuPFS2016.pdf
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id	my-utm-ep.78318
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-utm-ep.783182018-08-26T04:53:19Z Development of demand forecasting model for new product 2016-03 Abu, Noratikah QA Mathematics Forecasting new product sales or service is a critical process in marketing strategies and product performance for an organisation. There are several methods to forecast new product sales or service and the common method used in industry nowadays is Bass Diffusion Model. Since the development of the Bass Diffusion Model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. This research uses basic Bass Diffusion Model and the model is modified to analyse and forecast the vehicle demand in Malaysia. The objective of the proposed model is to represent the level of spread for the demands of new cars in the society in terms of a simple mathematical function. Since the amounts of available data are limited, a modified Bass Diffusion Model is developed to forecast the demand of new products. The selections of analogous product, parameter estimation method and different value potential market are discussed. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model is presented and the parameters of the model are estimated. The results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation show that the modified Bass Diffusion Model is robust and effective to forecast the demand of new product sales. This research concludes that the proposed modified Bass Diffusion Model has significantly contributed to forecast the level of spread for new product. 2016-03 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/78318/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/78318/1/NoratikahAbuPFS2016.pdf application/pdf en public http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:95635 phd doctoral Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science Faculty of Science
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	QA Mathematics Abu, Noratikah Development of demand forecasting model for new product
description	Forecasting new product sales or service is a critical process in marketing strategies and product performance for an organisation. There are several methods to forecast new product sales or service and the common method used in industry nowadays is Bass Diffusion Model. Since the development of the Bass Diffusion Model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. This research uses basic Bass Diffusion Model and the model is modified to analyse and forecast the vehicle demand in Malaysia. The objective of the proposed model is to represent the level of spread for the demands of new cars in the society in terms of a simple mathematical function. Since the amounts of available data are limited, a modified Bass Diffusion Model is developed to forecast the demand of new products. The selections of analogous product, parameter estimation method and different value potential market are discussed. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model is presented and the parameters of the model are estimated. The results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation show that the modified Bass Diffusion Model is robust and effective to forecast the demand of new product sales. This research concludes that the proposed modified Bass Diffusion Model has significantly contributed to forecast the level of spread for new product.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Abu, Noratikah
author_facet	Abu, Noratikah
author_sort	Abu, Noratikah
title	Development of demand forecasting model for new product
title_short	Development of demand forecasting model for new product
title_full	Development of demand forecasting model for new product
title_fullStr	Development of demand forecasting model for new product
title_full_unstemmed	Development of demand forecasting model for new product
title_sort	development of demand forecasting model for new product
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science
granting_department	Faculty of Science
publishDate	2016
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/78318/1/NoratikahAbuPFS2016.pdf
_version_	1747817959960608768

Development of demand forecasting model for new product

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