Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution

Overpopulation is a huge problem for the people of sub-Sahara African countries, including Nigeria. In order to tackle this problem, demographers have in the last five decades made immense efforts towards understanding the causes and mechanisms of fertility, and to explain the variations inherent in...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2017
Subjects:	QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79240/1/AmusanAjitoniSimeonPFS2017.pdf
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

id	my-utm-ep.79240
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-utm-ep.792402018-10-14T08:39:46Z Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution 2017 Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni QA Mathematics Overpopulation is a huge problem for the people of sub-Sahara African countries, including Nigeria. In order to tackle this problem, demographers have in the last five decades made immense efforts towards understanding the causes and mechanisms of fertility, and to explain the variations inherent in it. Several theoretical approaches that have been proposed mainly focus on cumulative or completed fertility as the main dependent variable. Moreover, it is equally important to examine variations in fertility in such entities such as timing and spacing of births. Data on birth interval offers rich and more detailed information for the analysis of reproductive behavior than does the data on number of births. And more importantly, timing of first birth after marriage which also corresponds to first-birth-interval (FBI) is strongly correlated to the number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive life. In this research, FBI is modeled stochastically as a survival response variable. Suitability of a class of some standard parametric models is investigated and the study comes up with a novel three-parameter inverse Gaussian model through the exponentiation of probability distribution approach. Estimations of parameters are obtained by maximizing the log-likelihood functions of the data in R software programming. Different approaches employed to discriminate between the distribution and the existing ones considered, suggests that the new model, Lehmann type II inverse Gaussian, provides a better fit for the FBI and other lifetime data. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) which is a resemblance of coefficient of determination in linear regression, also shows a significant reduction in value as covariates are introduced into it in comparison with regressions from other distributions. This research finds that age of women at marriage, education attainment and region where women reside are significant prognostic factors that influence the chance of first birth after marriage. The thesis concludes by calling on agencies and organizations working on population control, especially in Nigeria, to initiate programs that will encourage girl-child education to higher level. 2017 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79240/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79240/1/AmusanAjitoniSimeonPFS2017.pdf application/pdf en public phd doctoral Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science Faculty of Science
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	QA Mathematics Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
description	Overpopulation is a huge problem for the people of sub-Sahara African countries, including Nigeria. In order to tackle this problem, demographers have in the last five decades made immense efforts towards understanding the causes and mechanisms of fertility, and to explain the variations inherent in it. Several theoretical approaches that have been proposed mainly focus on cumulative or completed fertility as the main dependent variable. Moreover, it is equally important to examine variations in fertility in such entities such as timing and spacing of births. Data on birth interval offers rich and more detailed information for the analysis of reproductive behavior than does the data on number of births. And more importantly, timing of first birth after marriage which also corresponds to first-birth-interval (FBI) is strongly correlated to the number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive life. In this research, FBI is modeled stochastically as a survival response variable. Suitability of a class of some standard parametric models is investigated and the study comes up with a novel three-parameter inverse Gaussian model through the exponentiation of probability distribution approach. Estimations of parameters are obtained by maximizing the log-likelihood functions of the data in R software programming. Different approaches employed to discriminate between the distribution and the existing ones considered, suggests that the new model, Lehmann type II inverse Gaussian, provides a better fit for the FBI and other lifetime data. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) which is a resemblance of coefficient of determination in linear regression, also shows a significant reduction in value as covariates are introduced into it in comparison with regressions from other distributions. This research finds that age of women at marriage, education attainment and region where women reside are significant prognostic factors that influence the chance of first birth after marriage. The thesis concludes by calling on agencies and organizations working on population control, especially in Nigeria, to initiate programs that will encourage girl-child education to higher level.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni
author_facet	Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni
author_sort	Simeon, Amusan Ajitoni
title	Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
title_short	Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
title_full	Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
title_fullStr	Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
title_full_unstemmed	Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
title_sort	survival analysis of time-to-first birth after marriage in nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science
granting_department	Faculty of Science
publishDate	2017
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79240/1/AmusanAjitoniSimeonPFS2017.pdf
_version_	1747818180313612288

Survival Analysis of Time-to-First birth after marriage in Nigeria using three parameter inverse gaussian distribution

Similar Items