An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria

There is daunting challenges and pessimism of achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs) especially in developing countries such as Nigeria. The study on economic analysis of poverty, inequality and future of millennium development goals in Nigeria attempted quantitatively the forecasting of...

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Main Author:	Ali, Bello Malam
Format:	Thesis
Language:	eng eng
Published:	2010
Subjects:	HC Economic History and Conditions
Online Access:	https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/1/Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/2/1.Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf
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id	my-uum-etd.2439
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-uum-etd.24392013-07-24T12:16:01Z An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria 2010-08-23 Ali, Bello Malam Abdul Hakim, Roslan College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) College of Arts and Sciences HC Economic History and Conditions There is daunting challenges and pessimism of achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs) especially in developing countries such as Nigeria. The study on economic analysis of poverty, inequality and future of millennium development goals in Nigeria attempted quantitatively the forecasting of the future possibilities of Nigeria achieving the millennium development goals by 2015 and 2020. It further, evaluated millennium development goals progress in the country. Also, the work examined the probabilistic relationship of poverty and inequality to millennium development goals. The work is significant for development planning, economic forecasting, policy evaluation, program analysis and basis for policy formulation, especially at this time when there is still years to make positive adjustments. The methodologies used are forecasting models and applied econometric techniques to development economics. The former include three sophisticated models; Trend regression, Holt's exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins methods as well as composite indices, while the latter comprise of; fixed-effects, random-effects, pooled least square, weighted least square, probit and logit models. Although previous empirical studies were limited in analyzing few MDG indicators, relied heavily on naive projections and pro-poor programs evaluation have been neglected as well as probabilistic relationship between inequality and millennium development goals. In this study however, all these were overcome to some extent. Results of the main findings revealed that, millennium development goals are not achievable by 2015 and 2020 in Nigeria under the current trends as the models suggested. Nevertheless, there will be aggregate progress over the forecast period. Moreover, poverty and inequality are both rising as the models indicated, implying that these may derail the achievement of millennium development goals. The original contributions of this research among others, includes; extending MDG theory analysis to more indicators, application of three forecasting techniques into MDG theory, extending Kuznets' hypothesis testing to country-wide panel data analysis, in an attempt to understand the dynamism of MDGs, applied econometric models were developed and operationalized. Conclusively, the study contributes to practice by extending MDG composite index and originated Nigerian MDG composite indices. 2010-08 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/1/Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf application/pdf eng validuser https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/2/1.Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf application/pdf eng public http://lintas.uum.edu.my:8080/elmu/index.jsp?module=webopac-l&action=fullDisplayRetriever.jsp&szMaterialNo=0000761698 Ph.D. doctoral Universiti Utara Malaysia
institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection	UUM ETD
language	eng eng
advisor	Abdul Hakim, Roslan
topic	HC Economic History and Conditions
spellingShingle	HC Economic History and Conditions Ali, Bello Malam An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
description	There is daunting challenges and pessimism of achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs) especially in developing countries such as Nigeria. The study on economic analysis of poverty, inequality and future of millennium development goals in Nigeria attempted quantitatively the forecasting of the future possibilities of Nigeria achieving the millennium development goals by 2015 and 2020. It further, evaluated millennium development goals progress in the country. Also, the work examined the probabilistic relationship of poverty and inequality to millennium development goals. The work is significant for development planning, economic forecasting, policy evaluation, program analysis and basis for policy formulation, especially at this time when there is still years to make positive adjustments. The methodologies used are forecasting models and applied econometric techniques to development economics. The former include three sophisticated models; Trend regression, Holt's exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins methods as well as composite indices, while the latter comprise of; fixed-effects, random-effects, pooled least square, weighted least square, probit and logit models. Although previous empirical studies were limited in analyzing few MDG indicators, relied heavily on naive projections and pro-poor programs evaluation have been neglected as well as probabilistic relationship between inequality and millennium development goals. In this study however, all these were overcome to some extent. Results of the main findings revealed that, millennium development goals are not achievable by 2015 and 2020 in Nigeria under the current trends as the models suggested. Nevertheless, there will be aggregate progress over the forecast period. Moreover, poverty and inequality are both rising as the models indicated, implying that these may derail the achievement of millennium development goals. The original contributions of this research among others, includes; extending MDG theory analysis to more indicators, application of three forecasting techniques into MDG theory, extending Kuznets' hypothesis testing to country-wide panel data analysis, in an attempt to understand the dynamism of MDGs, applied econometric models were developed and operationalized. Conclusively, the study contributes to practice by extending MDG composite index and originated Nigerian MDG composite indices.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Ph.D.
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Ali, Bello Malam
author_facet	Ali, Bello Malam
author_sort	Ali, Bello Malam
title	An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
title_short	An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
title_full	An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
title_fullStr	An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed	An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria
title_sort	economic analysis of poverty, inequality and future of millennium development goals in nigeria
granting_institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department	College of Arts and Sciences (CAS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/1/Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/2439/2/1.Bello_Malam_Ali.pdf
_version_	1747827345360683008

An Economic Analysis of Poverty, Inequality and Future of Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria

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