Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt

The moderate and stable inflation rates are promoting important factors in the development process of a country, and hence economic growth. Moderate inflation supplements return to savers, enhances investment. and therefore, accelerates economic growth of the country. This paper empirically explores...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bey, Mousaab
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
eng
Published: 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/1/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/4/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-uum-etd.3248
record_format uketd_dc
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection UUM ETD
language eng
eng
advisor Dahalan, Jauhari
topic HG Finance
spellingShingle HG Finance
Bey, Mousaab
Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
description The moderate and stable inflation rates are promoting important factors in the development process of a country, and hence economic growth. Moderate inflation supplements return to savers, enhances investment. and therefore, accelerates economic growth of the country. This paper empirically explores the present relationship between inflation and economic growth in the context of Egypt. Using annual data set on real GDP and CPI for the period of 1980 to 2010, an assessment of empirical evidence is acquired through the co-integration and error correction models. Further, it explores a policy issue of what is the threshold level of inflation for the economy using the threshold autoregressive models. The empirical evidence demonstrates that there exists a long-run and a short-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. In addition, the estimated threshold model suggests 15 percent as the threshold level (i.e., structural break point) of inflation above which inflation adversely affects economic growth.
format Thesis
qualification_name masters
qualification_level Master's degree
author Bey, Mousaab
author_facet Bey, Mousaab
author_sort Bey, Mousaab
title Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
title_short Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
title_full Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
title_fullStr Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
title_full_unstemmed Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt
title_sort inflation and economic growth nexus in egypt
granting_institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business
publishDate 2012
url https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/1/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/4/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf
_version_ 1747827530476290048
spelling my-uum-etd.32482016-04-19T01:14:10Z Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Egypt 2012-05 Bey, Mousaab Dahalan, Jauhari Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business HG Finance The moderate and stable inflation rates are promoting important factors in the development process of a country, and hence economic growth. Moderate inflation supplements return to savers, enhances investment. and therefore, accelerates economic growth of the country. This paper empirically explores the present relationship between inflation and economic growth in the context of Egypt. Using annual data set on real GDP and CPI for the period of 1980 to 2010, an assessment of empirical evidence is acquired through the co-integration and error correction models. Further, it explores a policy issue of what is the threshold level of inflation for the economy using the threshold autoregressive models. The empirical evidence demonstrates that there exists a long-run and a short-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. In addition, the estimated threshold model suggests 15 percent as the threshold level (i.e., structural break point) of inflation above which inflation adversely affects economic growth. 2012-05 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/1/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf text eng validuser https://etd.uum.edu.my/3248/4/MOUSAAB_BEY.pdf text eng public masters masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Azariadas,C.,& Smith,B. (1996). Private Information, Money and Growth: Indeterminacies, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin effect. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3),309-322. Barro,R. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S103-S125. Barro,R.J. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-43. Barro,R.J. (1995,October ). Inflation and Economic Growth, Paper presented at National Bureau of Economic Research in Work Paper, Cambridge Retrieved from http:Nideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5326.html. Boyd,J.H., Ross,L ., & Bruce,S. (2001). The impact of inflation on financial sector performance. Journal of Monetary Economic, 47(2), 221-248. Bruno,M., & Easterly,W. (1998).lnflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41,3-26. Chimohbi,P,0. (2010). lnflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development, 3(2), 159-166. Choi,S., Smith,B.,& Boyd,J.H. (1996, November). Inflation, Financial Markets,and Capital Formation, Paper presented at Federal Reserve Bank in Conference Paper, of St.Louis. Retrieved from http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/ fedmwp/556.html. Christoffersen,P.,& Doyle,P.(1998,July). From Inflation to Growth. Eight Years of Transition, Paper presented at International Monetary Fund Working Paper Retrieved from http://www.imf.org/extemal/pubs/cat/longres. aspx?sk=2675.0. Clarida,R., Gali,J., & Gertler,M. (1999). The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature. 37(4), 1661-1707. De Gregorio,J. (1992). Effects of lnflation on Economic Growth : Lessons from Latin America. European Economic Review, 36,417-25. Dickey,D.A. & Fuller,W,A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74,427-431. Engle,R.F. & Granger,C,W.J. (1991). Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Advanced Texts in Econometrics, Oxford University Press. Engle,R.F. & Yoo,B.S. (1991). Cointegrated economic time series: an overview with new results. in R.F. Engle and C.W.J.Granger, eds., Long-Run Economic Relationships, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Erbaykal,E., & Okuyan,H,A. (2008). Does Inflation Depress Economic Growth? Evidence from Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 17, 1450-2887. Espinoza,R.,Leon,H., & Prasad,A. (201O,March). Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus-A Smooth Transition Model. Paper presented at International Monetary Fund Working Paper. Retrieved form http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ cat/longres.aspx?sk=23729.0 Fabayo,J,A,.& Ajilore,O,T. (2006).Inflation-how much is too much for economic growth in Nigeriahdian Economic Review, 41(2), 129-148. Fischer,S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. Frimpong,J,M,. & Oteng-Abayie,E,F. (2010).When is Inflation Harmful? Estimating the Threshold Effect for Ghana.American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 2(3), 232-239. Friedman,M. (1973). Money and Economic Development. Toronto, Lexington Books. Gali,J., & Gertler,M. (2007). Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(4), 25-45. Ghosh,A .,& Phillips,S. (1998). Warning: inflation may be harmful to growth. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. 45(4), 672-710. Granger,C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral meth-ods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. Henri,A,N. (2011). Inflation, Money and Economic Growth in Cameroon.International Journal of Financial Research, 2(1), 45-56. Hodge,D. (2005). Inflation and growth in South Africa. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(2), 163-180. Huybens,E., & Smith,B. (1998). Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy, Journal of Economic Theory, 81,353-400. Jen-Te,H., & Ming-Jia,W. (1998).Inflation and Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Analysis. China & World Economy, 19(5), 67-84. Johansen,S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Co-integration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254. Johansen,S. & Juselius,K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with the application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. Kanchan,D., & Chandan,K,M. (2011). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Malaysia - An Econometric Review. International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, 4, 415-419. Khan,M.S. ,& Senhadji,S.A. (2001). Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 48(1), 1-21. Kremer,S., Bick,A ., & Nautz D. (2009,July). Inflation and Growth: New Evidence From a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis. Paper presented at Humboldt University, SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2009-036, Germany: Berlin. Retrieved from http://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/ wpaper/sfb649dp2009-036.html Li,M. (2005). Inflation and Economic Growth: Threshold Effects and Transmission Mechanisms, Paper presented at Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Canada: Alberta. Retrieved from http://economics.ca/2OO6/papers/ 0176.pdf Lucas,R. (1973). Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.American Economic Review, 63(3), 326-334. Orphanides,A,. & Robert,M,S. (1990).Money, Inflation, and Growth.in Handbook of Monetary Economics,Benjamin M. Friedman, and Frank H. Hahn eds. Amsterdam: North Holland. Malla,S. (1997). lnflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Growth Equation. Journal of Applied Economics, 29(2), 233-238. Mallik,G., & Anis,C (2001). Inflation and economic growth : evidence from four south Asian countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-133. Minford,P., & Meenagh,D. (2006,September). Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth, Paper presented at Center for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in Conference Paper, Cardiff University Retrieved from http://www.st- andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0606.pdf Mubarik,A,Y,. (2005).Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of lnflation in Pakistan. SBP-Research Bulletin. 1(1),35-44. Muritala,T. (2011). Investment, lnflation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(5),68-76. Nasir,I., & Nawaz,S,. (2010). lnvestment, lnflation and Economic Growth Nexus. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4). Retrieved form http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/27163/ Phillips,P,C,B. & Perron,P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. Omay,O., & Kan,E. (2010).Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies. Economic Modelling, 27, 996-1005. Qaiser,M., Mansur,K.,& Fumitaka,F.(2009). Inflation and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Threshold Regression Approach. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(2),180-193 Romer,D. (2006). Advanced Macroeconomics. Gary Burke, United State. Salam,D,. & Kelikume,I. (2010). An Estimation of Inflation Threshold for Nigeria 1970-2008. International Review of Business Research Papers, 6(5), 375-385. Sala-i-Martin,X,X. (1997).I Just Ran Two Million Regressions. American Economic Review, 87(2), 178-183 Sarel,M. (1995). Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth. International Monetaly Fund Staf Papers, 43(1), 199-215. Shamim,A,. & Mortaza,G. (2005,July). Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005. Paper presented at Policy Analysis Unit, Research Department, Bangladesh Bank. Retrieved form http://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id3033. html Sweidan, 0,D. (2004). Does lnflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan? An Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-2000. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(2),41-66. Tan, Eu Chye (2008). Inflation and Economic Growth in ASEAN-5, Japan and South Korea. In: 11th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, 15-16 November 2008, Manila. (Unpublished) The website of data http://www.imf.org/external/ data.htm The website of data http://data.worldbank.org/ Wikipedia. (2012).Economic of Egypt. Retrieved from http://www.en.wikipedia.org.