The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia

This study analyzes the effects of domestic debt on economy growth in Malaysia for the period of 1996 to 2009 using quarterly data, and provides recommendations on how to improve domestic debt management in Malaysia. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between Treasury Bills, Go...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:https://etd.uum.edu.my/3706/1/s806315.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-uum-etd.3706
record_format uketd_dc
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection UUM ETD
language eng
advisor Abdullah, Hussin
topic HB Economic Theory
spellingShingle HB Economic Theory
Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman
The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
description This study analyzes the effects of domestic debt on economy growth in Malaysia for the period of 1996 to 2009 using quarterly data, and provides recommendations on how to improve domestic debt management in Malaysia. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between Treasury Bills, Government Securities and GDP. This study employs a function which includes treasury bills, investment issues, financial sector, social security institutions, insurance companies, public sector, and foreign holder as the potential determinants of domestic debt. The empirical analysis is based on time series data for 14 years. The model tested for a long run relationship using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration approach shows that treasury bills, investment issues, public sector, social security institutions, insurance companies, and financial sector are the determinants of domestic debt in the long run. On the other hand, results based on the Error Correction Model (ECM) show that treasury bills, investment issues, social security institutions, insurance companies, financial sector, and foreign holder are the significant determinants of domestic debt in a short run. Furthermore, variable ECM which indicates the speed of adjustment shows that 1.4 percent of the adjustment is completed in a year. The results obtained in the study suggest that policymakers should keep an eye on all of the significant variables since they affect economic growth.
format Thesis
qualification_name masters
qualification_level Master's degree
author Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman
author_facet Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman
author_sort Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman
title The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
title_short The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
title_full The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
title_fullStr The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia
title_sort effect of domestic debt on economic growth in malaysia
granting_institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department College of Arts and Sciences (CAS)
publishDate 2011
url https://etd.uum.edu.my/3706/1/s806315.pdf
_version_ 1747827630538752000
spelling my-uum-etd.37062016-04-27T06:58:12Z The Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in Malaysia 2011 Muhamad Sufiyan, Md Rahman Abdullah, Hussin College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) College of Arts and Sciences HB Economic Theory This study analyzes the effects of domestic debt on economy growth in Malaysia for the period of 1996 to 2009 using quarterly data, and provides recommendations on how to improve domestic debt management in Malaysia. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between Treasury Bills, Government Securities and GDP. This study employs a function which includes treasury bills, investment issues, financial sector, social security institutions, insurance companies, public sector, and foreign holder as the potential determinants of domestic debt. The empirical analysis is based on time series data for 14 years. The model tested for a long run relationship using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration approach shows that treasury bills, investment issues, public sector, social security institutions, insurance companies, and financial sector are the determinants of domestic debt in the long run. On the other hand, results based on the Error Correction Model (ECM) show that treasury bills, investment issues, social security institutions, insurance companies, financial sector, and foreign holder are the significant determinants of domestic debt in a short run. Furthermore, variable ECM which indicates the speed of adjustment shows that 1.4 percent of the adjustment is completed in a year. The results obtained in the study suggest that policymakers should keep an eye on all of the significant variables since they affect economic growth. 2011 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/3706/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/3706/1/s806315.pdf text eng validuser masters masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Abbas Ali S. M. and Christensen J. E. (2007). The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-income Countries and Emerging Markets. International MonetaryFund. Adam, C. S. & Bevan, D. L. (2005). Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries. Journal of Public Economics , 4, 571-597. Adofu, I., & Abula, M. (2010). Domestic Debt and the Nigerian Economy. Current Research Journal of Economic Theory 2(1): 22-26, 2010. Available at ISSN: http://maxwellsci.com/print/crjet/v2-22-26.pdf. Ahmed, A., (1984). Short and medium term approaches to solving African debt problems. Bull. J. Central Bank Nigeria, 12(22). Aizenman, J., Kletzer, K., & Pinto, B. (2007). Economic growth with constraints on tax revenues and public debt: implications for fiscal policy and cross-country differences . NBER Working Paper No. 12750. Available at NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12750.pdf Ajayi, E. A. (1989). Nigerian debt management experience. Bull J. Central Bank Nigeria, 13(2). Alison, J., (Ed.), (2001). Key issues for analyzing domestic debt sustainability. (Debt Relief International Publication ISB N: 1-903971-07-1). Farringdon Road, London: U.K. Aschauer, D. A. (2000). Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth. The Annals of Regional Science, 34(3), 343-363. Asogwa, R. C., & Ezema C. C. (2005). Domestic government debt structure, risk characteristics and monetary policy conduct: Evidence from Nigeria. Retrieved 24 December 2010, from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2005/macro/pdf/asogwa.pdf Bank Negara Malaysia (2008). Retrieved 22 December 2010 from http://bondinfo.bnm.gov.my Barro, R. J. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth? The Journal of Political Economy, 82, 1095-1117. Barro, R. J. (1989). The ricardian approach to budget deficit. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3, 37-54. Brian, W. C. (2007). The Federal Government Debt: Its Size and Economic Significance. (Congressional Research Service. RL31590). Washington, D.C.: Author. Buchanan, J. M. (1958). Public Principles of the Public Debt. Homewood, Illinois. Charles, S. W. Jr., & Peter, J. S. S. (2000). Time series evidence on social security and private saving: The issue revisited. Washington: University Way Ellensburg. Checerita, C., & Rother, P. (2010). The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation for the euro area. Working Paper No. 1237. Available at ECB: http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp123 7.pdf Diamond P. (1965). National debt in a neoclassical growth model. American Economic Review, 55(5), 1126-1150. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49: 1057-1071. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31. Dolan, E.G., & Lindsey, D. E. (1991). Macroeconomics (6th ed.). Chicago: The Dryden Press. Drazen, A., (1996). Towards a political-economic theory of domestic debt. NBER Working Paper No. 5890. Available at NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5890.pdf Edwards, S. (2002). Debt relief and fiscal sustainability. NBER Working Paper No. 8939. Available at NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8939 Elmendorf, D. W., & Mankiw, N. G. (1998). Government debt. NBER Working Paper No. W6470. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=226215. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(2), 251-276. Erdogan, S. (2000). A general assessments about the domestic debt policy of Turkey. [Electronic version]. The Faculty of Economical and Administrative Sciences, the Department of Economics, Kocaeli University. Eric M. E., & Hubbard, R. G. (2004). Federal government debt and interest rates. AEI Working Papers No. 105. Available at AEI: http://www.aei.org/workingpapers. Gbosi, A.N. (1998). The impact of Nigeria’s domestic debt on macroeconomic environment. First Bank Review Journal. Gilberto A. Libanio, (2005), Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: Theory, implications, and evidence. Nova Economia Belo Horizonte 15(3), 145-176. Granger, C.W.J. (1983). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic, 48, 3. Retrieved at 2 January 2011 from http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~kslin/macro2009/Granger%201 986.pdf Gurley, J. G., & Shaw, E. S. (1956). Financial Intermediaries and the Saving-Investment Process. J. Finance, May, 11(2): 257-276. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231- 54. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration: with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, 2: 169-210. Retrieved 10 January 2011, from http://paper.blog.eonet.jp/Johansen_and_ Juselius_1990.pdf Krugman, P. (2006). Will There Be a Dollar Crisis? Retrieved 10 January 2011, from http://www.cepr.org/meets/ wkcn/9/971/papers/krugman.pdf Lipsey, R.G. (1986). Economics. New York Harper and Row. Maana, I., Owino, R., & Mutai, N. (2008). Domestic debt and its impact on the economy: The case of Kenya. Paper presented at the 13th Annual African Econometric Society Conference in Pretoria, held on 9th to 11th July 2008 at the South Africa. Retrieved 2 January 2011 from http://www.africametrics.org/documents/conference08/day1/ session2/maana_owino_mutai2.pdf Meade, J. E. (1958), Is the national debt a burden? Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 10(2), 163-183. Retrieved 15 January 2011, from http://oep.oxfordjournals.org/content/11/ 1/109.extract Metzler, L. A. (1951). Wealth, saving, and the rate of interest. Journal of Political Economy. 59. Modigliani, F. (1961). Long-run implications of alternative fiscal policies and the burden of the national debt. Economic Journal, 71(284), 730-755. Mohammed, S. T. (2009). Domestic debt dynamics and fiscal sustainability in Nigeria: An empirical evidence. MPRA Papers No. 18452. Retrieved 10 December 2010, from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18452/1/MPRA_paper_18452.pdf Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-162. Panizza U (2007). Is domestic debt the answer to debt crises? iPD Working Papers. Available at iPD: http://policydialogue.org/files/publications/Domestic_Debt_ Answer_to_Debt_Crises_Panizza.pdf. Panizza U (2008). Domestic and external public debt in developing countries. UNCTAD Discussion Papers No. 188. Available at UNCTAD: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/osgdp200 83_en.pdf Patinkin, D., (1965). Money, interest, and prices (2nd ed.). New York: Harper and Row. Queientin, R., (1984). Nigeria and debt problems: Causes and solution. Paper presented at the United Bank for Africa, PLC, Lagos. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. NBER Working Paper No. 15639. Available at NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639 Saint-Paul, G. (1992). Fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model. [Electronic version]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1243-1259. Samuel G. and Guillaumont J. (2007) Can domestic debt contributes to the financing of the millennium development goals? The case of the West African economic and monetary union (WAEMU). CERDI Working Paper No.200720. Available at CERDI: http://cerdi.org/up;oads/pagesPerso/14/2007.20.pdf Sanusi, J. O., 1988. Genesis of Nigeria’s debt problems, problems and prospects for debt conversion. A Lecture delivered on Debt Conversion/Asset Trading at the Continental Merchant Bank of Nigeria. Schclarek, A. (2004), Debt and economic growth in developing industrial countries. Retrieved 20 December 2010, from http://www.aaep.org.ar/espa/anales/resumen04/04/ SchclarekA.pdf Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464. Shrestha, M. B., & Chowdhury K. (2005). A sequential procedure for testing unit roots in the presence of structural break in time series data: An application to Nepalese quarterly data 1970-2003. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2. Retrieved 11 December 2010, from http://www.usc.es/~economet/reviews/ ijaeqs224.pdf Stock, J.H., and Watson, M.W. (1988). Variable trends in economic time series. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2, 147-74. Zarinah Anwar. (2009). Malaysian debt securities and sukuk market: A guide for issuer and investor. Retrieved 20 December 2010 from http://www. sc.com.my Zeti Aziz. (2009). Malaysian debt securities and sukuk market: A guide for issuer and investor. Retrieved 20 December 2010 from http://bondinfo.bnm.gov.my