Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries

The purpose of this research is to test the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory in Africa. The theory is tested through the use of panel unit root and cointegration techniques. Based on the annual data covering the period of 1980-2012, panel unit root tests of Levin, Lin and Chu (20...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Yahaya, Auwal
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
eng
Published: 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/1/s814680.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/2/s814680_abstract.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-uum-etd.4692
record_format uketd_dc
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection UUM ETD
language eng
eng
advisor Abdullah, Hussin
topic HG Finance
spellingShingle HG Finance
Yahaya, Auwal
Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
description The purpose of this research is to test the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory in Africa. The theory is tested through the use of panel unit root and cointegration techniques. Based on the annual data covering the period of 1980-2012, panel unit root tests of Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) and Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) are conducted on the real exchange rate of the studied countries. The results based on the unit root tests failed to validate the theory in its strong form. However, based on the Pedroni (1995, 1996) cointegration test of price indices and exchange rates, the results appeared remarkable in favor of long term applicability of PPP as a cointegration concept. Further test on the long run relationship revealed that domestic prices played a vital role in determining the equilibrium exchange rates (hence PPP) as far as this data is concern. As concerns major policy, based on this study, these countries could use the PPP theory to determine the equilibrium exchange rates. Even though, the strong form of PPP theory could not be attested given the unit root approach employed, the empirical results emphasized that there is weak evidence about the long run PPP hypothesis in these countries.
format Thesis
qualification_name masters
qualification_level Master's degree
author Yahaya, Auwal
author_facet Yahaya, Auwal
author_sort Yahaya, Auwal
title Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
title_short Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
title_full Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
title_fullStr Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
title_full_unstemmed Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries
title_sort panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : a study of selected african countries
granting_institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business
publishDate 2015
url https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/1/s814680.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/2/s814680_abstract.pdf
_version_ 1747827782183813120
spelling my-uum-etd.46922021-03-29T09:25:16Z Panel unit root and cointegration test of purchasing power parity : A study of selected African countries 2015 Yahaya, Auwal Abdullah, Hussin Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business HG Finance The purpose of this research is to test the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory in Africa. The theory is tested through the use of panel unit root and cointegration techniques. Based on the annual data covering the period of 1980-2012, panel unit root tests of Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) and Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) are conducted on the real exchange rate of the studied countries. The results based on the unit root tests failed to validate the theory in its strong form. However, based on the Pedroni (1995, 1996) cointegration test of price indices and exchange rates, the results appeared remarkable in favor of long term applicability of PPP as a cointegration concept. Further test on the long run relationship revealed that domestic prices played a vital role in determining the equilibrium exchange rates (hence PPP) as far as this data is concern. As concerns major policy, based on this study, these countries could use the PPP theory to determine the equilibrium exchange rates. Even though, the strong form of PPP theory could not be attested given the unit root approach employed, the empirical results emphasized that there is weak evidence about the long run PPP hypothesis in these countries. 2015 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/1/s814680.pdf text eng public https://etd.uum.edu.my/4692/2/s814680_abstract.pdf text eng public masters masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Abuaf, N. & Jorion P. (1990). Purchasing power parity in the long run. The Journal of Finance. 1.(3), 157-74. Alba, J. D., & Papell, D. H. (2007). Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: evidence from panel data tests. Journal of Development Economics, 83(1), 240–251. Alba, J. D., & Park, D. (2003). Purchasing power parity in developing countries: multi-period evidence under the current float. World Development, 31(12), 2049–2060. Ali, A., & Ilhan, O. (2010). Testing purchasing power parity in transition countries: evidence from structural breaks. Amfiteatru Economic, 112(27), 190–198. Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J., & Nam, K. (2010). Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(4), 755–768. Azali, M., Habibullah, M. S. & Baharumshah, A. Z. (2001). Does purchasing power parity hold between Asian and the Japanese economies? Evidence using panel unit root and panel cointegration. Japan and the World Economy, 35–50. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hegerty, S. W. (2009). Purchasing power parity in lessdeveloped and transition economies. Journal of Economic Surveys, 23(4), 617–658. Bela, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctorine. A reapraisal. The Journal of Political Economy, 584-596., (12.) 12. Brissimis Sophocles, N., Dimitris, S. A., & Fragiska, V. K. (2004). Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate. Targeting working paper. Cassel, G. (1921). The world`s money problems. New York: E.P. Dutton and Co. Cassel, G. (1922). Money and foreign exchange after 1914. New York: Macmillan, Chang T., Lee, C.H., Chou, P.I., & Tang, D.P. (2011). Revisiting long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment for G-7 countries. Japan and the World Economy, 23(4), 259–264. Chang, T., Liu, W.-C., Yu, C.-P., & Kang, S. (2010a). Purchasing power parity for 10 latin American integration association countries, panel SURKSS tests. Applied Economics Letters, 17, 1575–1580 Chang, T., Lu, Y.C., Tang, D. P., & Liu, W.C. (2011). Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment, further evidence from African countries. Applied Economics, 43(2), 231–242. Chang, T., & Tzeng, H.-W. (2011). Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment. Further evidence from nine transition countries. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 1383–1391. Chang, T., Zhang, Y., & Liu, W.-C. (2010). Purchasing power parity for Asean-8 countries, panel SURKSS tests. Applied Economics Letters, 17, 1517–1523. Cheng, B. S. (1999). Beyond the purchasing power parity, testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18(6), 911–924. Cheung Yin-Wong, & Lai, K. S. (1993). Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float. Journal of International Economics, 34(2), 181–192. Chiu, R.-L. (2002). Testing the purchasing power parity in panel data. International Review of Economics & Finance, 11(4), 349–362. Coakley, J., Flood, R. P., Fuertes, A. M., & Taylor, M. P. (2005). Purchasing power parity and the theory of general relativity the first tests. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(2), 293–316. Crownover, C., Pippenger, J., & Steigerwald, D. G. (1996). Testing for absolute purchasing power parity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15(5), 783–796. Darby, M. R. (1983). Movement in purchasing power parity: the short-run and the long-run." in the international transmission of inflation. eds.: Michael R. Darby and James R .Lothian et al. Chicago. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 462–77. David, P. H., & Ruxandra, P. (2006). Additional evidence of long-run purchasing power parity with restricted structural change. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking., 38(8), 1329–1349. Drine, I., & Rault, C. (2008). Purchasing power parity for developing and developed countries. what can we learn from non-stationary panel data models? Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(4), 752–773. Edison, H. J., & Klovland, J. T. (1987). A quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis: evidence from Norway and the United kingdom. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2(10), 309–33. Faust, J., Rogers, J. H., & H. Wright, J. (2003). Exchange rate forecasting, the errors we’ve really made. Journal of International Economics, 60(1), 35–59. Frankel, Jacob. A. (1978). Purchasing power parity, doctrinal perspective and evidence from the 1920s. Journal of International Economics., 8(5), 169–91. Frankel, J. A. (1986). International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S economy, imperfect intergration of financial markets or goods markets?" In how open is the U.S economy? Ed.: rik harfer. Lexinfton: w. Lexington Books, pp. 33–67. Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1996): A panel project on purchasing power parity. Mean reversion within and between countries. Journal of International Economics, 40(1), 209–224. Froot, K., & Rogoff, K. (1996). Perspective on PPP and long-run real exchange rates. NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research. Glen, J. D. (1992). “Real Exchange rates in short, medium, and long run”. Journal of International Economic. 33(8) 147–66. Güney, P. Ö., Telatar, E., & Hasanov, M. (2012). Re-examining purchasing power parity for selected emerging markets and African countries. Applied Economics Letters, 19(2), 139–144. Holmes, M. J. (2000). Does purchasing power parity hold in African less developed countries? Evidence from a panel data unit root test. Journal of African Economies, 9(1): 63–78. Holmes, M. J. (2001b). New evidence on real exchange rates stationarity and purchasing power parity in less developed countries. Journal of Macroeconomics 23(4), 601–614. Hoque, A., & Banerjee, R. (2012). Does purchasing power parity hold for garment export-oriented developing countries? Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, 65, 8–13. Huizinga, J. (1987). An empirical investigation of the long run behavior of real exchange rates, in Carnegie-Rochester. Conf. Ser. Public Policy, 27 149–215. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. Islam, A. M., & Ahmed, S. M. (1999). The purchasing power parity relationship, causality and cointegration tests using Korea-US exchange rate and prices. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 95–111. Kalyoncu, H., Kula, F., & Aslan, A. (2010). The validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis in middle east and northern Africa countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 125–131. Karabulut, G., Bilgin, M. H., & Gozgor, G. (2013). Purchasing power parity hypothesis, mixed evidence from eastern Europe emerging markets. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49, 213–227. Kargbo, J. M. (2003a). Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity in Africa. World Development, 31 (10), 1673– 1685. Kilian, L., & Taylor, M. P. (2003). Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? Journal of International Economics, 60(1), 85–107. L., Sarno. (2005). Viewpoints towards a solution to the puzzle in exchange rate economics, where do we stand? Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(3), 678–708. Levin, A., Lin, C.F, & Chu, C. S. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data, asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(5), 1–24. Lin, S.-Y., Chang, H.-J., & Chang, T. (2011). Revisiting purchasing power parity for nine transition countries, a fourier stationary test. Post-Communist Economies, 23(02), 191–201. Lopez, C., Murray, C. J., & Papell, D. H. (2005). State of the art unit root tests and purchasing power parity puzzle. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 37(4), 361–369. Nagayasu, J. (1998). Does the long run purchasing power parity hold for Africa? Evidence from panel cointegration study. IMF working paper, WP/98/123 African department, International Monetry Fund, Washington DC., August. Nagayasu, J. (2002). Does the long-run PPP hypothesis hold for Africa? Evidence from a panel cointegration study. Bulletin of Economic Research, 7, 181–187. Nusair Salah, A. (2003). Testing the validity of purchasing power parity for Asian countries during the current float. Journal of Economic Development, 28(12), 129–147. Odedokun, M. O. (2000). Fulfilment of purchasing power parity conditions in Africa. The differential role of CFA and non-CFA membership. Journal of African Economies, 9(2), 213–234. P. Pedroni. (1995). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis`. P. Pedroni. (1996). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegration panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Working Paper, Indiana University, Bloomington. Pan, G., Chang, T., Lee, C.-H., & Liu, W.-C. (2012). Revisiting purchasing power parity for 18 African countries, sequential panel selection method. Applied Economics Letters, 19(9), 877–881. Papell, D., Theodoridis, H., (1998). Incresing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float. Journal of International Money and Finance, (17), 41–50. Pedroni, P. (2001). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Reviews of Economics and Statistics 83(4): 727-731. Rogoff, K. (1996). The purchasing power parity puzzle. Journal of Economics Literature, 34(6), 647–668. Rogoff, K., & K. Froot. (1995). Perspectives on PPP and the long-run real exchange exchange rate. In. G. Grossman K. Rogoff (eds), Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3. Amsterdam. Elsevier Science, 1647-1688., 1647–1688. Roll, R. (1979). “Violations of Purchasing Power Parity and their implications for effecient international commodity markets,” in international Finance and Trade. Eds.: Marshal sarnat and giogio p.szego. cambridge, ma, ballinger, 133–76. Salehizadeh, M., & Taylor, R. (1999). A test of purchasing power parity for emerging economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 9(2), 183–193. Sarno, L., & Passari, E. (2011). Purchasing Power Parity in Tradable Goods. Sarno, L., & Valente, G. (2006). Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how? Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(11), 3147–3169. Shiller, I. (2013). Testing purchasing power parity in the long-run Ilona Shiller university of new Brunswick, 14(1), 11–20. Shintani, M. (2006). A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21(7), 589–604. Su, C.-W., Chang, T., & Liu, Y.-S. (2012). Revisiting purchasing power parity for African countries with nonlinear panel unit-root tests. Applied Economics, 12(25), 3263–3273. Sulku, S. N. (2001). Econometric testing of purchasing power parity in less developed countries:,fixed and flexible exchange rate. Sulku, S. N. (2010). Econometric testing of purchasing power parity in less developed countries: fixed and flexible exchange rate regime experiences. Applied Economics, 42, 2617–2630. Taylor, A. M. (2002). A century of purchasing-power parity. The Review of Economics and Statics, 84(2), 139–150. Taylor, A. M., & Taylor, M. P. (2004). The purchasing power parity debate. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 135–158. Taylor M.P, Peel D.A, & Sarno L. (2001). Nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates toward a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles. International Economic Review, 1015–1042. Tsong, C.-C. (2010). Are real exchange rates mean reverting in developing economies in asia? A covariate stationarity approach. International Economic Journal, 24(9), 397–412. Voinea Laurentiu, G. (2013). The purchasing power parity: evidence from the great financial crisis (p. 35). Wu, Y. (1996). Are real exchange rates non-stationary? Evidence from a panel data test. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, (28), 54–63. Zhang, S., & Lowinger, T. C. (2006). An empirical test of purchasing power parity in selected developing countries, a panel data approach. International Economic Journal, 20(1), 79–86.