Factors determining crude oil price

Causes of oil price increase have been a subject of much interest and numerous studies given the importance of oil as the main source of energy of the world. In the last two decades, the price of crude oil has been fluctuating rapidly and at times drastically. But the causes of the rise in the price...

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Main Author:	Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah
Format:	Thesis
Language:	eng eng
Published:	2014
Subjects:	HB Economic Theory HG Finance
Online Access:	https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/1/s92284.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/2/s92284_abstract.pdf
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id	my-uum-etd.4955
record_format	uketd_dc
institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection	UUM ETD
language	eng eng
advisor	Jaafar, Ahmad Sobri Dahalan, Jauhari
topic	HB Economic Theory HG Finance
spellingShingle	HB Economic Theory HG Finance Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah Factors determining crude oil price
description	Causes of oil price increase have been a subject of much interest and numerous studies given the importance of oil as the main source of energy of the world. In the last two decades, the price of crude oil has been fluctuating rapidly and at times drastically. But the causes of the rise in the price of crude oil still remained a controversy. Literature has two views. The first group argues that the changes in oil prices are due to supply and demand. The other claims that financial variables (speculation and future markets) play a big role in crude oil price changes. The objectives of this study to determine the main determinants of crude oil price changes by using the VECM model and examine the effect of the new variables in the oil market such as; days of forward supply and convenience yield on oil price changes. This study examines four main factors that affect crude oil prices which are; supply variables, demand variables, geopolitics and speculation. The results of this study indicate that oil prices in the last two decades especially after the crisis in 2008 are determined by fundamental variables which are total oil rigs, days of forward supply and convenience yield. Moreover, principal component analysis indicates that days of forward supply is the nearest factor in the PCA coordinate system which explains the changes in crude oil prices.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Ph.D.
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah
author_facet	Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah
author_sort	Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah
title	Factors determining crude oil price
title_short	Factors determining crude oil price
title_full	Factors determining crude oil price
title_fullStr	Factors determining crude oil price
title_full_unstemmed	Factors determining crude oil price
title_sort	factors determining crude oil price
granting_institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department	Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business
publishDate	2014
url	https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/1/s92284.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/2/s92284_abstract.pdf
_version_	1747827834588495872
spelling	my-uum-etd.49552022-05-18T01:56:32Z Factors determining crude oil price 2014 Dawod, Wajdi Hamzah Jaafar, Ahmad Sobri Dahalan, Jauhari Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business HB Economic Theory HG Finance Causes of oil price increase have been a subject of much interest and numerous studies given the importance of oil as the main source of energy of the world. In the last two decades, the price of crude oil has been fluctuating rapidly and at times drastically. But the causes of the rise in the price of crude oil still remained a controversy. Literature has two views. The first group argues that the changes in oil prices are due to supply and demand. The other claims that financial variables (speculation and future markets) play a big role in crude oil price changes. The objectives of this study to determine the main determinants of crude oil price changes by using the VECM model and examine the effect of the new variables in the oil market such as; days of forward supply and convenience yield on oil price changes. This study examines four main factors that affect crude oil prices which are; supply variables, demand variables, geopolitics and speculation. The results of this study indicate that oil prices in the last two decades especially after the crisis in 2008 are determined by fundamental variables which are total oil rigs, days of forward supply and convenience yield. Moreover, principal component analysis indicates that days of forward supply is the nearest factor in the PCA coordinate system which explains the changes in crude oil prices. 2014 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/1/s92284.pdf text eng public https://etd.uum.edu.my/4955/2/s92284_abstract.pdf text eng public Ph.D. doctoral Universiti Utara Malaysia Abdullah, M. H. (1998), the future of oil prices, Journal of World Economy, vol. 1: 28-29 Abreu, D., & Brunnermeier, M. K. (2003). Bubbles and crashes. Econometrica, 71(1), 173-204. Acemoglu, D., Ticchi, D., & Vindigni, A. (2008). A theory of military dictatorships: National Bureau of Economic Research. Adelman, M. A. (1990). Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-10. Adelman, M. A. (1995). The genie out of the bottle: World oil since 1970: The MIT press. Aguilera, R. F., Eggert, R. G., Gustavo Lagos, C. C., & Tilton, J. E. (2009). 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