Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China

This study attempts to investigate the possible relationship between stock price and inflation rate in China over the period of September 1997 to July 2015 using variables of share price index, consumer price index (CPI), interest rate and industrial production. Past studies mainly focus on the deve...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dengke, Li
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
eng
Published: 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/1/s817470_01.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/2/s817470_02.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-uum-etd.5549
record_format uketd_dc
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection UUM ETD
language eng
eng
advisor Nordin, Sabariah
topic HG Finance
spellingShingle HG Finance
Dengke, Li
Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
description This study attempts to investigate the possible relationship between stock price and inflation rate in China over the period of September 1997 to July 2015 using variables of share price index, consumer price index (CPI), interest rate and industrial production. Past studies mainly focus on the developed countries. Despite numerous theories, literature reveals that there is not enough information and investigation about developing countries especially China. This study aims to narrow this gap by examining the relationship between stock and inflation in China. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been employed to determine the long and short run relationships among the variables respectively. The cointegration test reveals a significant long run relationship between the underlying variables. Based on the VECM results, inflation is found to have a significant and positive influence on the stock market in the long run as well as in the short run. The Granger causality test also indicates that inflation has a unidirectional causality on the stock market index. In general, the results suggest a positive significant relationship between inflation and stock price.
format Thesis
qualification_name masters
qualification_level Master's degree
author Dengke, Li
author_facet Dengke, Li
author_sort Dengke, Li
title Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
title_short Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
title_full Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
title_fullStr Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China
title_sort evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in china
granting_institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department Faculty of Finance and Banking
publishDate 2015
url https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/1/s817470_01.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/2/s817470_02.pdf
_version_ 1747827947487625216
spelling my-uum-etd.55492021-03-18T06:39:32Z Evaluating the impact of inflation on stock market in China 2015 Dengke, Li Nordin, Sabariah Faculty of Finance and Banking School of Economics Finance and Banking HG Finance This study attempts to investigate the possible relationship between stock price and inflation rate in China over the period of September 1997 to July 2015 using variables of share price index, consumer price index (CPI), interest rate and industrial production. Past studies mainly focus on the developed countries. Despite numerous theories, literature reveals that there is not enough information and investigation about developing countries especially China. This study aims to narrow this gap by examining the relationship between stock and inflation in China. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been employed to determine the long and short run relationships among the variables respectively. The cointegration test reveals a significant long run relationship between the underlying variables. Based on the VECM results, inflation is found to have a significant and positive influence on the stock market in the long run as well as in the short run. The Granger causality test also indicates that inflation has a unidirectional causality on the stock market index. In general, the results suggest a positive significant relationship between inflation and stock price. 2015 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/1/s817470_01.pdf text eng public https://etd.uum.edu.my/5549/2/s817470_02.pdf text eng public masters masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Adam, A. M., & Frimpong, S. (2010). Can Stocks Hedge Against Inflation in the Long Run: Evidence from Ghana Stock Market. Available at SSRN 1585577. Adrangi, B., Chatrath, A., & Sanvicente, A. Z. (2011). Inflation, Output, and Stock Prices: Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 18(1). Ahn, S. K., & Reinsel, G. C. (1990). Estimation for partially nonstationary multivariate autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85(411), 813-823. Al-Khazali, O. M. (2003). Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 2(3), 287-314. Al-Sharkas, A. A., & Al-Zoubi, M. (2013). Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco. Journal of International Business Research, 12(1), 23. Ammer, J. (1994). Inflation, Inflation Risk, and Stock Returns (Vol. 464). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Anari, A., & Kolari, J. (2001). Stock Prices and Inflation. Journal of Financial Research, 24(4), 587-602. Arjoon, R., Botes, M., Chesang, L. K., & Gupta, R. (2012). The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Real Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence from South Africa. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(4), 600-613. Asprem, M. (1989). Stock Prices, Asset Portfolios and Macroeconomic Variables in ten European Countries. Journal of Banking & Finance, 13(4), 589-612. Bai, Z. (2014). Study on the Impact of Inflation on the Stock Market in China. International Journal of Business and Social Science, Vol.5 No.7 (1), 261-271 Barsky, R. B. (1986). Why don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together? (No. w2047). National Bureau of Economic Research. Bekaert, G., & Engstrom, E. (2010). Inflation and the Stock Market: Understanding the “Fed Model”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(3), 278-294. Bodie, Z. (1976). Common Stocks as a Hedge Against Inflation. The Journal of Finance, 31(2), 459-470. Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. Campbell, J. Y., & Vuolteenaho, T. (2004). Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices (No. w10263). National Bureau of Economic Research. Chakravarty, S., & Mitra, A. (2013). Stock Prices and Inflation: Relationship Revisited. World Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 9(3), 201-215. Chatziantoniou, I., Duffy, D., & Filis, G. (2013). Stock Market Response to Monetary and Fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 30, 754-769. Chidothi, D., & Sheefeni, J. P. S. (2013). The Relationship between Inflation and Stock Prices in Zambia. Asian Journal of Business and Management, 1(4). Chinese Financial Statistic Website: http://www.chinatoday.com/fin/china-finance.htm Choudhry, T. (2001). Inflation and Rates of Return on Stocks: Evidence from High Inflation Countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 11(1), 75-96. Cohn, R. A., & Lessard, D. R. (1981). The Effect of Inflation on Stock Prices: International Evidence. The Journal of Finance, 36(2), 277-289. Collard, F., & Dellas, H. (2007). The Great Inflation of the 1970s. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2‐3), 713-731. Dan Barufaldi, (2008). A Review of Past Recessions. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp Databank from Bank of China 2014: http://www.boc.cn/fimarkets/summarize/ Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1993). Moderate Inflation. The World Bank Economic Review, 7(1), 1-44. Eita, J. H. (2012). Inflation and Stock Market Returns in South Africa. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 11(6), 677-686. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276. Engsted, T., & Tanggaard, C. (2002). The Relation between Asset Returns and Inflation at Short and Long Horizons. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 12(2), 101-118. Fama, E. F. (1980). Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm. The journal of political economy, 288-307. Fama, E. F. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money. The American Economic Review, 545-565. Fama, E. F., & Schwert, G. W. (1977). Asset Returns and Inflation. Journal of financial economics, 5(2), 115-146. Fazel, F. F. S. (2008). Can Investors Use Inflation Data to Predict Stock Prices? In International Conference on Applied Economics–ICOAE (p. 311). Feldstein, M. S. (1978). Inflation and the stock market, Regnery Publishing. Fisher, I. (1965). The theory of interest, Kelley Publishing. Floros, C. (2004). Stock Returns and Inflation in Greece. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(2). Friedman, M. (1994). Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Gallagher, L. A., & Taylor, M. P. (2002). The Stock Return–Inflation Puzzle Revisited. Economics Letters, 75(2), 147-156. Geetha, C., Mohidin, R., Chandran, V. V., & Chong, V. (2011). The Relationship between Inflation and Stock Market: Evidence from Malaysia, United States and China. International journal of economics and management sciences, 1(2), 1-16. Geyser, J. M., & Lowies, G. A. (2001). The Impact of Inflation and Stock Prices in Two SADC Countries. Meditari Accountancy Research, 9(1), 109-122. Granger, C. W. (2003). Some Aspects of Causal Relationships. Journal of Econometrics, 112(1), 69-71. Gregoriou, A., & Kontonikas, A. (2010). The Long-run relationship Between Stock Prices and Goods Prices: New evidence from panel cointegration. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 20(2), 166-176. Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. 4th. Gultekin, N. B. (1983). Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from other Countries. Journal of Finance, 49-65. Hansen, P. R. (2005). Granger's Representation Theorem: A closed‐form Expression for I (1) Processes. The Econometrics Journal, 8(1), 23-38. Hess, P. (2014). China’s Financial System: Past Reforms, Future Ambitions and Current State. In Currency Cooperation in East Asia (pp. 21-41). Springer International Publishing. Hylleberg, S., Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W., & Yoo, B. S. (1990). Seasonal Integration and Cointegration. Journal of econometrics, 44(1), 215-238. Ibrahim, T. M., & Agbaje, O. M. (2013). The Relationship between Stock Return and Inflation in Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 9(4). Ioannides, D., Katrakilidis, C., & Lake, A. (2005, May). The Relationship between Stock Market Returns and Inflation: An econometric investigation using Greek data. In International Symposium on Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, Brest-France (pp. 17-20). Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2), 231-254. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210. Kaaresvirta, J., & Koivu, T. (2008). China's inflationary Pressures and Their Impact on Inflation in euro area. helda.helsinki.finance. Kaul, G. (1987). Stock Returns and Inflation: The Role of the Monetary Sector. Journal of financial economics, 18(2), 253-276. Kharas, H., & Gertz, G. (2010). The New Global Middle Class: a Cross-over From West to East. Wolfensohn Center for Development at Brookings, 1-14. Koop, G. (2006). Analysis of financial data. John Wiley & Sons. Lee, S., Ha, J., Na, O., & Na, S. (2003). The Cusum Test for Parameter Change in Time Series Models. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 30(4), 781-796. Li, Z., & Zhou, J. (2006). Analysis on Structural Changes in the Macroeconomic Data Series with the Empirical Evidence from China. Frontiers of Economics in China, 1(2), 155-170. Limpanithiwat, K., & Rungsombudpornkul, L. (2010). Relationship between Inflation and Stock Prices in Thailand. Research paper. Lütkepohl, H., & Krätzig, M. (2004). Applied Time Series Econometrics. Cambridge University Press. Lütkepohl, H., & Poskitt, D. S. (1991). Estimating Orthogonal Impulse Responses via vector Autoregressive Models. Econometric Theory, 7(04), 487-496. MacDonald, M. R., & Ricci, M. L. A. (2003). Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa (No. 3-44). International Monetary Fund. MacKinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A., & Michelis, L. (1998). Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration (No. 9803). Department of Economics, University of Canterbury. Madsen, J. B. (2004). Pitfalls in Estimates of the Relationship between Share Returns and Inflation, Finance Research Unit. FRU Working Papers, 2004/07. Mahmood, I., Nazir, F., Junid, M., & Javed, Z. H. (2014). Stock Prices and Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan. Journal of Asian Business Strategy, 4(12), 217-223. Merikas, A. G., & Merika, A. A. (2006). Stock Prices Response to Real Economic Variables: the case of Germany. Managerial Finance, 32(5), 446-450. Miller, K. D., Jeffrey, F. J., & Mandelker, G. (1976). The “Fisher Effect” for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation. The Journal of finance, 31(2), 447-458. Nelson, E. (2005). The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?. Advances in Macroeconomics, 5(1). Olufisayo, A. O. (2013). Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Economics, 3(6), 260-267. Olufisayo, A. O. (2013). Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Nigeria.American Journal of Economics, 3(6), 260-267. Omotor, D. G. (2010). Relationship between Inflation and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Statistics, 1(1), 1. Omotor, D. G. (2010). Relationship between Inflation and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Statistics, 1(1), 1. Ram, R., & Spencer, D. E. (1983). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Comment. The American Economic Review, 463-470. Rapach, D. E. (2002). The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Real Stock Prices. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(3), 331-351. Rapach, D. E., & Wohar, M. E. (2002). Testing the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination: New Evidence from a Century of Data. Journal of International Economics, 58(2), 359-385. Reddy, D. L. (2012). Impact of Inflation and GDP on Stock Market Returns in India. International journal of advanced research in management and social sciences, 1(6). Robles, V. C. F. (2012). Essays in Applied Microeconomics (Doctoral dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University). Schwert, G. W. (1983). Size and Stock Returns, and Other Empirical Regularities.Journal of Financial Economics, 12(1), 3-12. Shiller, R. J., & Beltratti, A. E. (1992). Stock Prices and Bond yields: Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models? Journal of Monetary Economics, 30(1), 25-46. Shin, Y., & Schmidt, P. (1992). The KPSS Stationarity Test as a Unit Root Test. Economics Letters, 38(4), 387-392. Shukairi, Waleed, AbdulBaset& Marwan (2012). The Relationship between Inflation and Stock prices (a case of Jordan). IJRRAS, 10(1), 46-52 Siegel, J. (1994). Stock for the Long Run: a Guide to Selecting Markets for Long-Term Growth. New York: Irvin. Solnik, B. (1983). The Relation Between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: the International Evidence. The Journal of Finance, 38(1), 35-48. Watson, M. W. (1994). Vector Autoregressions and Cointegration. Handbook of econometrics, 4, 2843-2915. Wei, C. (2009). Does the Stock Market React to Unexpected Inflation Differently Across the business cycle?. Applied Financial Economics, 19(24), 1947-1959. Wilcox, S. E. (2012). Equity Valuation and Inflation: A Review. Research Foundation Literature Reviews, 7(1), 1-23. Yeh, C. C., & Chi, C. F. (2009). The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries. Journal of Economics and Management, 5(2), 167-186.