An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries

This study intends to investigate the impact of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate on stock market performance of G7 countries which are United States, UK, Canada, Japan, Italy, Germany and France. The stock indices used in this study are Dow Jones Industrial stock index, FTSE all stock...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Zhang, Long Fei
Format: Thesis
Language:eng
eng
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/1/s819021_01.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/2/s819021_02.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-uum-etd.7157
record_format uketd_dc
institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection UUM ETD
language eng
eng
advisor Nordin, Sabariah
topic HB Economic Theory
spellingShingle HB Economic Theory
Zhang, Long Fei
An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
description This study intends to investigate the impact of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate on stock market performance of G7 countries which are United States, UK, Canada, Japan, Italy, Germany and France. The stock indices used in this study are Dow Jones Industrial stock index, FTSE all stock index, DAX stock index, SBF 250 index, Tokyo stock exchange index, Toronto stock exchange and Comit indices. This study employs annual data for 15 years which is from 2001 to 2015. The data is obtained from the Datastream database. An ordinary least square, fixed effect model, random effect model and fixed effect with robust standard error model are the tests used to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results of the fixed effect model with robust standard error show that inflation rate has a significant impact and positive relationship with the stock index movement. In particular, the regression result shows that for 1 percent increase in inflation rates the stock price would increase by 38 percent. The exchange rate and interest rate do not have any significant impact on the stock market index.
format Thesis
qualification_name masters
qualification_level Master's degree
author Zhang, Long Fei
author_facet Zhang, Long Fei
author_sort Zhang, Long Fei
title An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
title_short An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
title_full An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
title_fullStr An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
title_full_unstemmed An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries
title_sort investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of g7 countries
granting_institution Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department School of Economics, Finance & Banking
publishDate 2017
url https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/1/s819021_01.pdf
https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/2/s819021_02.pdf
_version_ 1747828164713775104
spelling my-uum-etd.71572021-08-18T08:47:16Z An investigation on the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance of G7 countries 2017 Zhang, Long Fei Nordin, Sabariah School of Economics, Finance & Banking School of Economics, Finance and Banking HB Economic Theory This study intends to investigate the impact of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate on stock market performance of G7 countries which are United States, UK, Canada, Japan, Italy, Germany and France. The stock indices used in this study are Dow Jones Industrial stock index, FTSE all stock index, DAX stock index, SBF 250 index, Tokyo stock exchange index, Toronto stock exchange and Comit indices. This study employs annual data for 15 years which is from 2001 to 2015. The data is obtained from the Datastream database. An ordinary least square, fixed effect model, random effect model and fixed effect with robust standard error model are the tests used to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results of the fixed effect model with robust standard error show that inflation rate has a significant impact and positive relationship with the stock index movement. In particular, the regression result shows that for 1 percent increase in inflation rates the stock price would increase by 38 percent. The exchange rate and interest rate do not have any significant impact on the stock market index. 2017 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/1/s819021_01.pdf text eng public https://etd.uum.edu.my/7157/2/s819021_02.pdf text eng public masters masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Abdelbaki, H. H. (2013). Causality relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market development: Evidence from Bahrain. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 7(1), 69-84. Addo, A., & Sunzuoye, F. (2013). The Impact of Treasury Bill rate and interest rate on the stock market returns: Case of Ghana stock exchange. European Journal of Business and Economics, 8(2). Adenuga, A. O. (2010). Stock market development indicators and economic growth in Nigeria (1990-2009): Empirical investigations. Central Bank of Nigeria, 48(1), 33. Alam, M.M., & Uddin, G. S. (2009). Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical evidence from Developed and Developing Countries. International Journal of Business and Management, 4(3), 43. Ali, H. (2014). Impact of Interest Rate on Stock Market; Evidence from Pakistani Market. IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 16(1), 64-69. Apergis, N., & Eleftheriou, S. (2002). Interest rates, inflation, and stock prices: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(3), 231-236. Arestis, P., Demetriades, P. O., & Luintel, K. B. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: the role of stock markets. Journal of money, credit and banking, 33(1),16-41. Arjoon, R., Botes, M., Chesang, L. K., & Gupta, R. (2012). The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices: empirical evidence from South Africa. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(4), 600-613. Bai, Z. (2014). Study on The Impact of Inflation on The Stock Market in China. International Journal of Business and Social Science, Vol.5 No.7 (1), 261-271. Barakat, M. R., Elgazzar, S. H., & Hanafy, K. M. (2016). Impact of macroeconomic variables on stock markets: Evidence from emerging markets. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(1), 195-207. Bathia, D., & Bredin, D. (2013). An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns. The European Journal of Finance, 19(9), 909-937. Beenstock, M., & Chan, K. F. (1988). Economic forces in the London stock market. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 50(1), 27-39. Bekaert, G., & Engstrom, E. (2010). Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the “Fed Model”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(3), 278-294. Bodie,Z. (1976). Common stocks as a hedge against inflation. Journal of Finance, 31(2), 459–470. Brunie, C. H., Hamburger, M. J., & Kochin, L. A. (1972). Money and stock prices: The channels of influence. The Journal of Finance, 27(2), 231-249. Büyüksalvarci, A., & Abdioglu, H. (2010). The causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables: A case study for Turkey. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(4), 601-601. Caporale, T. & Jung, C. (1997). Inflation and Real Stock Prices. Applied Financial Economics, 7, 265-266. Cecchetti, S. G. (1992). The Stock Market Crash of 1929.in: P. Newman, M. Milgate and J. Eatwell (eds), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, 3. (Macmillan Press limited, London, pp. 573-577. Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 59(3), 383-403. Chidothi, D., & Sheefeni, J. P. S. (2013). The relationship between inflation and stock prices in Zambia. Asian Journal of Business and Management, 1(04), 185-192. Christie, A. A. (1982). The stochastic behavior of common stock variances: Value, leverage and interest rate effects. Journal of Financial Economics, 10(4), 407-432. Christopoulos, D. K., & Tsionas, E. G. (2004). Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 55-74. Dan, C. (2014). The Relationship between Share Prices and Interest Rates: Evidence from Kenya. Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 3(2), 91-98. Domaç, I., & Yücel, E. M. (2005). What triggers inflation in emerging market economies? Review of World Economics, 141(1), 141-164. Dritsaki, M. (2005). Linkage between stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals: case study of Athens stock exchange. Journal of Financial Management & Analysis, 18(1), 38-47. Duca, G. (2007). The relationship between the stock market and the economy: experience from international financial markets. Bank of Valletta Review, 36, 1-12. Enisan, A. A., & Olufisayo, A. O. (2009). Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries. Journal of Economics and Business, 61(2), 162-171. European Commission (2009). Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses. European Economy, 7, 2009. Fama, E. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. Fama, E. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. The American Economic Review, 71(4), 545-565. Flannery, M. J., & Protopapadakis, A. (2002). Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns. The review of financial studies, 15(3), 751 - 782. French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., & Stambaugh, R. F. (1987). Expected stock returns and volatility. Journal of financial Economics, 19(1), 3-29. Fynn, K. D. (2012). Does the Equity Market affect Economic Growth? Macaleste Review Journal, 2(2), 1-12. Geetha, C., Mohidin, R., Chandran, V. V., & Chong, V. (2011). The relationship between inflation and stock market: evidence from Malaysia, United States and China. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(2), 1-16. Geyser, J. M., & Lowies, G. A. (2001). The impact of inflation and stock prices in two SADC countries. Meditari Accountancy Research, 9(1), 109-122. Green, G. D. (1971). The economic impact of the stock market boom and crash of 1929. In Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Consumer Spending and Monetary Policy: The Linkages, Monetary Conference (pp. 189-220). Gregoriou, A., & Kontonikas, A. (2010). The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 20(2), 166-176. Groenewold Fraser, N. (1997). Share prices and macroeconomic factors. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 24(9‐10), 1367-1383. Hamburger, M. J., & Kochin, L. A., (1972). Money and Stock Prices: The Channels of Influence. Journal of Finance, 27(2), 231-49. Hernández-Trillo, F. (1999). Financial derivatives introduction and stock return volatility in an emerging market without clearinghouse: The Mexican experience. Journal of Empirical Finance, 6(2), 153-176. Homa, Kenneth E. and Dwight M. Jaffee. (1971) The supply of money and common stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 26(5): 1045-1066. Hou, H., & Cheng, Su-Y. (2010). The roles of stock market in the finance growth nexus: time series cointegration and causality evidence from Taiwan. Applied Financial Economics, 20(12), 975-981. Hsing, Y., Budden, M. C., & Phillips, A. S. (2012). Macroeconomic determinants of the stock market index for a major Latin American country and policy implications. Business and Economic Research, 2(1). Humpe, A., & Macmillan, P. (2009). Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan. Applied Financial Economics, 19(2), 111-119. Ibrahim, M. H., & Aziz, H. (2003). Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples. Journal of Economic Studies, 30(1), 6-27. Imdadullah, M. B. A., & Hayatabad, P. (2012). Impact of interest rate, exchange rate and inflation on stock returns of kse 100 index. International Journal of Economics Research, 3(5), 142-155 Ioannides, D., Katrakilidis, C., & Lake, A. (2005, May). The relationship between stock market returns and inflation: An econometric investigation using Greek data. In International Symposium on Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, Brest-France (pp. 17-20). Khan, M. S. (2014). Macroeconomic Variables & Its Impact on KSE-100 Index: Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, 2(2), 33-39. King, B.F, (1966). Market and industry factors in stock price behavior. Journal of business, University of Chicago Press, 39, 139-90. King, M., Sentana, E., & Wadhwani, S. (1990). Volatility and links between national stock markets (No. w3357). National Bureau of Economic Research. Kirui, E., Wawire, N. H., & Onono, P. O. (2014). Macroeconomic variables, volatility and stock market returns: A case of Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(8), 214-228. Krugman, P. (2009). How did the economists get it so wrong? The New York Times, Sept 6. Kutty, G. (2010). The relationship between exchange rates and stock prices: The case of Mexico. North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 4(4), 1-12. Kuwornu, J. K. (2012). Effect of macroeconomic variables on the Ghanaian stock market returns: A co-integration analysis. Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 4(2), 1-12. Levine, R. (2004). Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper No. 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Available: www.nber.org/papers/ w10766 Li, H. (2002). Employee stock options, residual income valuation and stock price reaction to SFAS 123 footnote disclosures. Residual Income Valuation and Stock Price Reaction to SFAS, 123. Liang, C. C., Lin, J. B., & Hsu, H. C. (2013). Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach. Economic Modelling, 32, 560-563. Lobo, B. J. (2000). Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Changes on Stock Prices. The Financial Review, 35, 125-144. Marx, C., & Struweg, J. (2015). Stagflation and the South African equity market. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 531-542. Maysami, R. C., Howe, L. C. & Hamzah, M. A. (2004). Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Indices: Cointegration Evidence from Stock Exchange of Singapore’s All-S Sector Indices. Jurnal Pengurusan, 24, 47-77. Mishkin, F.S. (2013) Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets (10th ed.). London: Pearson Education. Modigliani, F. & Cohn, R. A. (1979). Inflation, Rational Valuation and the Market. Financial Analysts Journal, 35, 24-44. Mohammed, O., & John, P. (2001). Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The Case of Egypt Emerging Markets Review, 2(3), 263-279. Mohi-u-Din, S., & Mubasher, H. M. (2013). Macroeconomic variables on stock market interactions: The Indian Experience. Advances in Management, 6(8), 39-51. Moolman, E., & Toit, C, D. (2015). An econometric model of the South African stock market. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 8(1), 77-91. Morley, B., & Pentecost, E. J. (2000). Common trends and cycles in G-7 countries exchange rates and stock prices. Applied Economics Letters, 7(1), 7-10. Murtagh, J.P. (2012). G7 equity index reaction to the 2008 financial crisis. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 13(1), 53-58. Naik, P. K. (2013). Does stock market respond to economic fundamentals? Time-series analysis from Indian data. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 3(1), 34-50. Ngare, E., Nyamongo, E. M., & Misati, R. N. (2014). Stock market development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Business, 74, 24-39. Nieh, C. C., & Lee, C. F. (2002). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 41(4), 477-490. Nkechukwu, G., Onyeagba, J., & Okoh, J. (2013). Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Prices in Nigeria: A Co-integration and Vector Error Correctio n Model Tests. International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), ISSN (Online): 2319, 7064, 717-724. Obstfeld, M. (1994). Evaluating risky consumption paths: the role of intertemporal substitutability. European Economic Review, 38(7), 1471-1486. Olalere, D. O. (2006). An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behavior in South Africa. My Science Work. Retrieved from https://www.mysciencework.com/publication/show/481bfd3a8daec34eb22055b3d0402da6 Olomu, E. (2015). Impact of macroeconomic variables on UK stock market: A case study of FTSE100 index (Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of East London). Olufisayo, A. O. (2013). Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Economics, 3(6), 260-267. Olweny, T. & Omondi, K. (2011). The Effect of Macro-economic factors on Stock Return Volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Kenya. Economics and Finance Review, 1(10), 34-48. Pal, K., & Mittal, R. (2011). Impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian capital markets. The Journal of Risk Finance, 12(2), 84-97. Pan, M. S., Fok, R. C. W., & Liu, Y. A. (2007). Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 16(4), 503-520. Patel, S. (2012). The effect of macroeconomic determinants on the performance of the Indian stock market. NMIMS Management Review, 22(1), 117-127. Pilinkus, D. (2010). Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on stock market performance in the short and long run: the case of the Baltic States. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(2), 291-304. Polasek, W. & Ren, L. (2001). Volatility analysis during the Asia crisis: a multivariate GARCH-M model for stock returns in the US, Germany and Japan, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 17(1), 93-108. Rapach, D. E. (2002). The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(3), 331-351. Ravn, M. O., & Uhlig, H. (2002). On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations. Review of economics and statistics, 84(2), 371-376. Sarkar, A., & Patel, S. A. (1998). Stock Market Crises in Developed and Emerging Markets. Financial analysis journal, 54(6), 50-59. Sbeiti, W., & Haddad, A. E. (2011). Stock Markets Dynamics in Oil-Dependent Economies: Evidence from The GCC Countries. International Journal Research of Applied Finance, 2(3), 205-250. Schwert, G. W. (1989a), Business cycles, financial crises and stock volatility, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 31 Autumn 1989, 83-125. Sharif, T., Purohit, H., & Pillai, R. (2015). Analysis of Factors Affecting Share Prices: The Case of Bahrain Stock Exchange. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(3), 207-216. Sohail, N., & Zakir, H. (2010). Macroeconomic policies and stock returns in Pakistan: A comparative analysis of three stock exchanges: Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, 1(2), 181-187. Solnik, B. (1983). The relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations: The international evidence. The Journal of Finance, 38(1), 35-48. Solnik, B. (1987). Using financial prices to test exchange rate models: a note. Journal of Finance, 42(1), 141-149. Stiglitz, J. E. (1994). Economic growth revisited. Industrial and Corporate Change, 3(1), 65-110. Talla, J. T. (2013). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Prices of the Stockholm Stock Exchange (OMXS30). Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School. Unpublished Master´s thesis in International Financial Analysis. Toraman, C., & Başarir, Ç. (2014). The long run relationship between stock market capitalization rate and interest rate: Co-integration approach. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 143, 1070-1073. Tripathi, V., & Kumar, A. (2014). Relationship between Inflation and stock returns–evidence from BRICS markets using panel co-integration test. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 4(2), 647-658. Tsoukalas, D. (2003). Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the emerging Cypriot equity market. Managerial Finance, 29(4), 87-92. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2010). The financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the developing countries. Vanita, T., & Khushboo, A. (2015). Long Run Co-Integrating Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence from BRICS Countries. Advances in Management, 8(1), 15-25. Verick, S., & Islam, I. (2010). The great recession of 2008-2009: causes, consequences and policy responses, Institute for The Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper No. 4934, 3-7 Vena, H. (2012). The Effect of Inflation on The Stock Market Returns of The Nairobi Security Exchange. In Finance, School of Business, University of Nairobi. Whitefoot, J. (2016). Can anything prevent a U.S. stock market crash in 2016? Retrieved from http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market/u-s-stock-market-crash-in-2016/. Yeh, C. C., & Chi, C. F. (2009). The co-movement and long-run relationship between inflation and stock returns: Evidence from 12 OECD countries. Journal of Economics and Management, 5(2), 167-186. Yousuf, A., & Nilsson, F. (2013). Impact of Exchange Rates on Swedish Stock Performances: Empirical study on USD and EUR exchange rates on the Swedish stock market. Yusof, R. M., & AbdulMajid, S. (2007). Stock market volatility transmission in Malaysia: Islamic versus conventional stock market. Islamic Economics, 20(2), 17-35. Zakaria, Z., & Shamsuddin, S. (2012). Empirical evidence on the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomics volatility in Malaysia. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, 4(2), 61-71. Zeren, F., & Koç, M. (2016). Time varying causality between stock market and exchange rate: evidence from Turkey, Japan and England. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 696-705.