An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia

Rice is an important staple food in Malaysia and represents a substantial household expenditure. Although the average rice consumption in Malaysian households has dropped due to preference change, total demand has increased. This can be attributed to the high population growth. Malaysian rice farmer...

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Main Author:	Nicholas, Hoe
Format:	Thesis
Language:	eng eng
Published:	2017
Subjects:	HC Economic History and Conditions
Online Access:	https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/1/817826_1.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/2/817826-2.pdf
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id	my-uum-etd.8089
record_format	uketd_dc
institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
collection	UUM ETD
language	eng eng
topic	HC Economic History and Conditions
spellingShingle	HC Economic History and Conditions Nicholas, Hoe An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
description	Rice is an important staple food in Malaysia and represents a substantial household expenditure. Although the average rice consumption in Malaysian households has dropped due to preference change, total demand has increased. This can be attributed to the high population growth. Malaysian rice farmers have not been able to meet the country’s demand. Hence, Malaysia imports large quantities of rice from neighbouring countries to supplement its rice stockpile. Malaysia, which imports about 40 percent of its rice, is the 10th largest importer of rice in the world. This makes Malaysia susceptible to global rice crisis, similar to the one in 2008. To solve this problem, the government implemented policies to safeguard the country’s food security and self-sufficiency levels. These efforts may be difficult in the future, as climate projections have shown that climate change will affect countries in the tropics most negatively with increased temperature and flooding due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. This study analysed the effect of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions on rice production in Malaysia during the period 1970-2013. The analysis incorporated the following variables: total local rice production, carbon dioxide emissions, precipitation, land used for paddy farming, total rice imports, and global average crude oil prices. The assessment of the impact of these determinants on rice production was achieved using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that in the long-run, climate changes will affect rice cultivation in the country, with carbon dioxide negatively affecting output, and increased rainfall positively affecting output. In the short-run, only precipitation and land showed effects on rice production. The significance of the error correction term also inferred that a long-run relationship exists. This study showed that climate variations in the future should be taken into consideration when formulating policies to ensure Malaysia’s rice stockpile.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Master of Philosophy (MPhil)
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Nicholas, Hoe
author_facet	Nicholas, Hoe
author_sort	Nicholas, Hoe
title	An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
title_short	An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
title_full	An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
title_fullStr	An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia
title_sort	economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in malaysia
granting_institution	Universiti Utara Malaysia
granting_department	School of Economics, Finance & Banking
publishDate	2017
url	https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/1/817826_1.pdf https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/2/817826-2.pdf
_version_	1747828321147682816
spelling	my-uum-etd.80892021-05-10T07:40:25Z An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia 2017 Nicholas, Hoe School of Economics, Finance & Banking School of Economics Finance and Banking HC Economic History and Conditions Rice is an important staple food in Malaysia and represents a substantial household expenditure. Although the average rice consumption in Malaysian households has dropped due to preference change, total demand has increased. This can be attributed to the high population growth. Malaysian rice farmers have not been able to meet the country’s demand. Hence, Malaysia imports large quantities of rice from neighbouring countries to supplement its rice stockpile. Malaysia, which imports about 40 percent of its rice, is the 10th largest importer of rice in the world. This makes Malaysia susceptible to global rice crisis, similar to the one in 2008. To solve this problem, the government implemented policies to safeguard the country’s food security and self-sufficiency levels. These efforts may be difficult in the future, as climate projections have shown that climate change will affect countries in the tropics most negatively with increased temperature and flooding due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. This study analysed the effect of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions on rice production in Malaysia during the period 1970-2013. The analysis incorporated the following variables: total local rice production, carbon dioxide emissions, precipitation, land used for paddy farming, total rice imports, and global average crude oil prices. The assessment of the impact of these determinants on rice production was achieved using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that in the long-run, climate changes will affect rice cultivation in the country, with carbon dioxide negatively affecting output, and increased rainfall positively affecting output. In the short-run, only precipitation and land showed effects on rice production. The significance of the error correction term also inferred that a long-run relationship exists. This study showed that climate variations in the future should be taken into consideration when formulating policies to ensure Malaysia’s rice stockpile. 2017 Thesis https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/ https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/1/817826_1.pdf text eng public https://etd.uum.edu.my/8089/2/817826-2.pdf text eng public mphil masters Universiti Utara Malaysia Ainsworth, E. A. (2008), Rice production in a changing climate: a meta??analysis of responses to elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration, Global Change Biology 14 (7), 1642-1650. Ainsworth, E. A., Davey, P. A., Bernacchi, C. J., Dermody, O. 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An economic analysis of anthropogenic climate change on local rice output in Malaysia

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