The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia

The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia

This study aimed to develop the stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model to estimate therelative risk for leptospirosis mapping specifically for children and adults in Malaysia.This study used model development as it research design. The methodology of this study took intoaccount the transmission of l...

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Main Author: Aznida Che Awang
Format: thesis
Language:eng
Published: 2018
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RC Internal medicine
Online Access:https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=5750
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institution Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
collection UPSI Digital Repository
language eng
topic RC Internal medicine
spellingShingle RC Internal medicine
Aznida Che Awang
The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
description This study aimed to develop the stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model to estimate therelative risk for leptospirosis mapping specifically for children and adults in Malaysia.This study used model development as it research design. The methodology of this study took intoaccount the transmission of leptospirosis in the stochastic SIR-SI model (S=susceptible, I=infected, R=recovered for human populations and S=susceptible, I=infected for vector populations). In this study, the existing SIR-SI model was improvised andadapted to the leptospirosis transmission. Then, the model was expended to form an alternativeSIR-SI Age-Structured model specifically for children and adults to estimate the relative risk ofleptospirosis for these populations in Malaysia. The data used in this study were weekly data fromepidemiology week 1 to epidemiology week 52 for the year 2015 for all sixteen states in Malaysia.The results of the analysis based on the age structured model were also compared with the existingmodels to identify the better model for estimating relative risk. For the children group, theresults showed that children in Kelantan have the highest risk of contracting leptospirosiswhile the children in Labuan have the lowest risk of contracting the disease. Similarly, adultsin Kelantan and Labuan also possessed the highest and lowest risk of contractingleptospirosis, respectively. As a conclusion, the new model was better as compared to otherexisting models in estimating relative risk for leptospirosis because it consideredimportant elements such as the number of population, age group and the transmission process of thedisease. This model also generates leptospirosis risk map for children and adults inMalaysia. In implication, the proposed model and generated risk maps can be practically appliedtowards the control of leptospirosis by government agencies, medical officers and authorities aswell as increasing the awareness of local communities towards the high-lowrisk areas of leptospirosis.
format thesis
qualification_name
qualification_level Master's degree
author Aznida Che Awang
author_facet Aznida Che Awang
author_sort Aznida Che Awang
title The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
title_short The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
title_full The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
title_fullStr The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
title_sort development of stochastic sir-si age-structured model for leptospirosis mapping in malaysia
granting_institution Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
granting_department Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
publishDate 2018
url https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=5750
_version_ 1747833222764429312
spelling oai:ir.upsi.edu.my:57502021-04-05 The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia 2018 Aznida Che Awang RC Internal medicine This study aimed to develop the stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model to estimate therelative risk for leptospirosis mapping specifically for children and adults in Malaysia.This study used model development as it research design. The methodology of this study took intoaccount the transmission of leptospirosis in the stochastic SIR-SI model (S=susceptible, I=infected, R=recovered for human populations and S=susceptible, I=infected for vector populations). In this study, the existing SIR-SI model was improvised andadapted to the leptospirosis transmission. Then, the model was expended to form an alternativeSIR-SI Age-Structured model specifically for children and adults to estimate the relative risk ofleptospirosis for these populations in Malaysia. The data used in this study were weekly data fromepidemiology week 1 to epidemiology week 52 for the year 2015 for all sixteen states in Malaysia.The results of the analysis based on the age structured model were also compared with the existingmodels to identify the better model for estimating relative risk. For the children group, theresults showed that children in Kelantan have the highest risk of contracting leptospirosiswhile the children in Labuan have the lowest risk of contracting the disease. Similarly, adultsin Kelantan and Labuan also possessed the highest and lowest risk of contractingleptospirosis, respectively. As a conclusion, the new model was better as compared to otherexisting models in estimating relative risk for leptospirosis because it consideredimportant elements such as the number of population, age group and the transmission process of thedisease. This model also generates leptospirosis risk map for children and adults inMalaysia. In implication, the proposed model and generated risk maps can be practically appliedtowards the control of leptospirosis by government agencies, medical officers and authorities aswell as increasing the awareness of local communities towards the high-lowrisk areas of leptospirosis. 2018 thesis https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=5750 https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=5750 text eng closedAccess Masters Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris Fakulti Sains dan Matematik Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat. (2017). Standardized Morbidity Ratio forLeptospirosis Mapping in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 20006).Assimina, Z. & Fotoula, B. (2008). Leptospirosis: Epidemiology and Preventive Measures.Health Science Journal. 2(2): 75-82Barreto, M. L. (2006). Infectious Diseases Epidemiology. Journal of Epidemiology & CommunityHealth, 60(3), 192195.Benacer, D., Kwai, L. T., Khebir Verasahib, Galloway, R. L., Hartskeerl, R. A., Lewis,J. W., & Siti Nursheena Mohd Zain. 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International Postgraduate Conference onScience and Mathematics 2016, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Oral Presentation Session.(2) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Leptospirosis Disease Mapping withStandardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis of Leptospirosis Disease inKelantan, Malaysia. 1?? International Conference on Applied & Industrial Mathematics 2017,Vistana Kuantan City Centre, Oral Presentation Session.B) Publication(1) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017). Standardized morbidity ratiofor leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 20006).http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4983861(2) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Leptospirosis Disease Mapping withStandardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis of Leptospirosis Disease inKelantan, Malaysia. Journal if Physics:Conference Series, 2017(3) Nor Azah Samat & Aznida Che Awang (2018), The Discrete Time-SpaceSIR-SI Age-Structured Model for Leptospirosis. SCIEMATIC2018

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