Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries

Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries

<p>This study examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on economic performance, which</p><p>indirectly affects economic growth and poverty reduction in 11 developing countries by using annual</p><p>data during 1980-2016....

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Main Author: Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali
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Published: 2020
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Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali
Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
description <p>This study examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on economic performance, which</p><p>indirectly affects economic growth and poverty reduction in 11 developing countries by using annual</p><p>data during 1980-2016. Three methods of analysis, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL),</p><p>Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL)</p><p>applied for analysing eight models constructed. The nominal exchange rate is the main interest</p><p>variable in the economic performance model. Foreign direct investment, international reserve, and</p><p>trade balance are the main interest variables in the economic growth model and poverty reduction</p><p>model, respectively. By considering the incidence of the structural break, the results of</p><p>time-series analysis using the ARDL method shows that the nominal exchange rate contributes</p><p>positively to foreign direct investment in 7 countries. The results also show the nominal exchange</p><p>rate negatively affects international reserve in the short run, then has a positive effect in the</p><p>long-run in 5 countries. Other findings of the study prove that the nominal exchange rate improves</p><p>trade balance in the short-run, but it worsens trade balance in the long-run in 8 countries. Having</p><p>Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of Squares (CUSUMSQ) tests, the results show that the</p><p>structures of three models of economic performance are stable. The results of FMOLS show a negative</p><p>long-run relationship between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment as well as</p><p>international reserve, but a positive long-run relationship between gross domestic product and</p><p>trade balance. The results of P-ARDL show that per capita income is influenced positively by</p><p>foreign direct investment, international reserve, trade balance, and remittance. This study calls</p><p>for a rethinking of the importance of foreign direct investment and international reserve in</p><p>boosting economic growth. The developing countries should rethink the negative-sides incurred for</p><p>economic growth rather than pursuing foreign</p><p>direct investment and hoarding international reserves.</p><p></p>
format thesis
qualification_name
qualification_level Doctorate
author Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali
author_facet Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali
author_sort Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali
title Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
title_short Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
title_full Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
title_fullStr Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
title_full_unstemmed Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
title_sort linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries
granting_institution Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
granting_department Fakulti Pengurusan dan Ekonomi
publishDate 2020
url https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=8675
_version_ 1776104553284894720
spelling oai:ir.upsi.edu.my:86752023-02-13 Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries 2020 Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali <p>This study examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on economic performance, which</p><p>indirectly affects economic growth and poverty reduction in 11 developing countries by using annual</p><p>data during 1980-2016. Three methods of analysis, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL),</p><p>Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL)</p><p>applied for analysing eight models constructed. The nominal exchange rate is the main interest</p><p>variable in the economic performance model. Foreign direct investment, international reserve, and</p><p>trade balance are the main interest variables in the economic growth model and poverty reduction</p><p>model, respectively. By considering the incidence of the structural break, the results of</p><p>time-series analysis using the ARDL method shows that the nominal exchange rate contributes</p><p>positively to foreign direct investment in 7 countries. The results also show the nominal exchange</p><p>rate negatively affects international reserve in the short run, then has a positive effect in the</p><p>long-run in 5 countries. Other findings of the study prove that the nominal exchange rate improves</p><p>trade balance in the short-run, but it worsens trade balance in the long-run in 8 countries. Having</p><p>Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of Squares (CUSUMSQ) tests, the results show that the</p><p>structures of three models of economic performance are stable. The results of FMOLS show a negative</p><p>long-run relationship between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment as well as</p><p>international reserve, but a positive long-run relationship between gross domestic product and</p><p>trade balance. The results of P-ARDL show that per capita income is influenced positively by</p><p>foreign direct investment, international reserve, trade balance, and remittance. This study calls</p><p>for a rethinking of the importance of foreign direct investment and international reserve in</p><p>boosting economic growth. The developing countries should rethink the negative-sides incurred for</p><p>economic growth rather than pursuing foreign</p><p>direct investment and hoarding international reserves.</p><p></p> 2020 thesis https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=8675 https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=8675 text eng closedAccess Doctoral Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris Fakulti Pengurusan dan Ekonomi <p>Abdullahi, A., Safiyanu, S & Soja, T. (2016). International trade and economic growth: An empiricalanalysis of West Africa. Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(2), 12-15.</p><p></p><p>Abdulateef, U. & Waheed, I. (2010). External reserve holdings in Nigeria: Implications forinvestment, inflation and exchange rate. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(9),183-189.</p><p></p><p>Abel, A. (1983). Optimal investment under uncertainty. The American Economic Review, 73(1),228233.</p><p></p><p>Accolley, D. (2003). The determinants and impacts of foreign direct investment. 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